Extreme hot and dry weather has taken a toll on the US corn and soyabean crops with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday slashing its condition rating for US corn to 48 percent good-to-excellent, down 8 percentage points from a week earlier. That was 3 percentage points below the average of analysts' estimates in a Reuters poll taken earlier in the day. Analysts and crop experts have said corn and soyabeans have suffered from extreme hot and dry weather in the US Midwest.
USDA pegged the soyabean crop at 45 percent good-to-excellent, compared with 53 percent a week ago and 5 percentage points below the average of analysts' estimates for 50 percent. The hot and dry weather in the US Midwest continued to hurt crop ratings and related production prospects. Further declines are likely this week, analysts and meteorologists said.
USDA began the year forecasting the US corn at 77 percent good to excellent and soyabeans at 56 percent good to excellent. The latest USDA corn rating is 29 percentage points below the USDA's initial forecast early in the crop season and the soyabean rating is 11 percentage points below USDA's initial forecast.
Current weather forecasts do not bode well for improvement in corn or soyabean conditions or yields going forward. There were midday weather outlooks on Monday for some rain in the dry areas of the north-east US Midwest but overall not enough to greatly improve crop prospects, forecasters said. "We're still looking at a scenario providing below-average rainfall for at least the next 10 days," said John Dee of Global Weather Monitoring.
A few storm systems over the weekend brought light and isolated heavy rainfall to parts of the Midwest, "mostly along I-80," he said, referring to the interstate highway. But "a good chunk of the Midwest had no rain," he added. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s (degrees Fahrenheit) to 100s F this week, adding more stress to each crop.
The reduction in condition ratings corresponded to outlooks for declining crop production prospects for the 2012 crop year. Cropcast, a division of MDA EarthSat Weather, on Monday told the Reuters Global Ag forum it had pegged the 2012 US corn yield at 150.6 bushels per acre, down from its previous forecast of 153.3 bushels.
It projected domestic corn production at 13.179 billion bushels, down from its prior estimate of 13.503 billion. The company, which specialises in agricultural weather forecasting, forecast the US soyabean yield at 40.0 bushels an acre, below its previous projection of 40.6 bushels, and pegged soyabean production at 2.962 billion bushels, below its previous 3.014 billion bushel outlook.