ARTICLE: Negative sells. Panic increases media traffic. Sensation creates audience. Bad fascinates. Fear glues people to the newsfeed. All these audience/human behavior responses seem to be valid generally and more particularly since Covid-19 hit the world. There is a race of how bad, horrible, terrible it is, will be, and can be. The fact that the best of the developed world is coping the worse with this pandemic has created even more fear and uncertainty. The natural assumption is that if the countries with the best science, research and resources are looking helpless, what will become of the minnows in the game. Facebook, WhatsApp and other media are full of horrific stories and tragic incidents. Economies crashing, people dying, crimes spiking, etc. The message is "All is unwell and unbearable".
That is why time for somethings to cheer up. They may not be many moments to cheer but they are happening. It is just that in the shrill of bad news the murmurings of good news is kind of overshadowed. With stress levels reaching dangerously high we must see and absorb the good things that are happening and spread hope and let people smile. The world is struggling to get back to normal and that has its own hazards. By in large, most countries are constantly innovating on how to balance lives and livelihoods. Let us look at 8 interesting developments that bode well for the future:
Vaccine development may be faster than earlier estimates - Normally vaccine development, manufacturing and scale up takes 15 years. Even with the whole world working on it and almost 60 candidates in various trial stages the best estimate was that the first doses may be commercially available by mid-2021. However, Oxford has beaten all estimates. Oxford's vaccine is already in three late-stage trials. AstraZeneca, a British pharmaceutical company, is building an international supply chain to make sure that the vaccine is available "widely and rapidly. If in August 2020 its trials prove effective the vaccine may be ready to be used for emergency situations before the end of this year". A feat nobody thought possible a few months earlier.
Pakistan's economy more resilient than many - Economies all over the world crashed. The richest have run out of cash and food. The poorest are becoming poorer. Pakistan was supposed to be hard hit as its economy was already struggling. March and April were confirmations of this fear. However May onwards the economy doom figures changed. While UK economy is supposed to contract by -10.2%, US' -8%, India's economy by -4.5% Pakistan's economy decline is supposed to be the lowest in the region at -0.4%. In fact, with exports picking up unexpectedly some international agencies are also predicting 1% positive growth for the country in the coming year.
Exports recover remarkably - Perhaps the biggest setback was supposed to be in exports. The April estimate was that as markets shut down Pakistan will have a deficit of 70% this year which would drastically increase the current account deficit. This was reduced to 50% in May and 33% in early June. The final figures showed a deficit of only 6.5% compared to last year while in its neigbouring India and Bangladesh the shortfalls were 17% and 13%, respectively, remittances have hit a new record high while current account deficit is an all-time low.
Stock markets sustain upbeat trend-Covid-19 is a destroyer of stock markets as uncertainty and business reduction are lethal for stock values. Pakistani stock market had its ups and down and a foiled terrorist attack. However, it ended up being the best performing stock market increasing almost 8,000 points in the last few weeks.
Pakistan diversifying its products and markets - With stores like Zara, JC Penny, H&M closed and announcing store closures or bankruptcy the traditional exports of T shirts and apparel received a huge setback. Shipments were turned down and for a moment it looked as if textiles will be a big casualty. However, very soon, Pakistani exporters switched to medical PPE equipment and masks, etc., as the demand soared all over the world. From an importer of PPE equipment, Pakistan has become an exporter as it has received $ 100 million and more worth orders from all over the world. Similarly, exporters have turned to African and Central Asian markets to supply equipment as other countries struggle to establish their supply chains.
Local research and development takes a head start - The most heartening aspect of this crisis is that it is not just making a different garment on the machines but making machines that have never been made in Pakistan. These machines are the most wanted medical item in the world i.e., ventilators. The first batch of 'SafeVent SP100' portable ventilators was handed over to the national disaster management agency. The facility in the northern town of Haripur has a production capacity of up to 300 ventilators a month.
Pakistan achieves its climate change goal a decade ahead of 2030 - All our lives we have heard of Pakistan missing out international goals and targets. Pakistan missed its MDGs, i.e., millennium development goals and the SDGs also look tough. Amidst COVID19 to hear that Pakistan has fulfilled its Climate Change commitment a decade ahead is really unique. Pakistan has achieved SDG goal 13 through its major initiatives including 10 Billion Tree Tsunami Programme, Clean Green Pakistan Initiative, Clean Green Pakistan Index, Protected Areas Initiative, Eco-system Restoration Fund for facilitating the transition towards environmentally-resilient policy making.
Smart Lockdown and Ehsaas Programme get international Acclaim - Perhaps the most reassuring factor has been the management of Covid-19 in Pakistan. With most developed world, especially the US, failing to contain the virus the expectation was that the poorer countries with little reserves and densely populated illiterate households will be the largest victim-And the spike post-Eid in Pakistan seemed a confirmation of this fact. However, Pakistan's smart lockdown strategy has not only flattened the curve but according to an Imperial College London study made its RO or reproductive rate less than one which places it amongst the few who are curbing the virus with success. Not only that, Pakistan's Ehsaas programme to subsidize the poor during the lockdown is quoted by the World Bank as a success model that has prevented mass hunger unlike India and many other more developed countries.
Pre-mature celebrations are not recommended. But all gloom and doom are also recipes for panic and non-growth. Amidst such grim circumstances where faces express frowning worries a smile or two will always give hope and light. These two are pre-requisites to tap the amazing resilience and creativity of human beings to survive and thrive.
(The writer can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020