The Ministry of Water and Power is to inform the Federal Cabinet on Wednesday (today) that people will have to spend their days and nights without electricity in the months to come as the projected shortfall will not be less than 5,000MW.
The Federal Cabinet, to be presided over by the Prime Minister, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf will get an update on the energy situation from the Ministry of Water and Power and a two-week activity report of the energy committee headed by Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh.
The presentation which analysts believe is based on 'fudged figures' would indicate a shortfall during peak hours of 5,137 MW in the first period, to be followed by 4,764MW in the second and 4,267MW in the third period.
Ramazan is expected to fall in the third period. This indicates that every month has been divided into three periods.
In August this year, during the first period, the net available capacity has been projected at 15,457MW against a demand of 19,139MW, showing a shortfall of 3682 MW. The second period's net capacity will be 15,504MW against a demand of 19,155MW, indicating shortfall of 3,651MW and during the third period, the power generation is expected to be 14,747MW against a demand of 19,122MW, projecting a shortfall of 4,469MW.
In September, the shortfall is projected at 4,149MW during the first period followed by 4,239MW in the second period and 3,806MW in the third.
According to the Ministry, the decisions taken by the Federal Cabinet had not been implemented in letter and spirit with special reference to the diversion of gas from other sectors to the power sector and furnace oil supply.
The Water and Power Ministry presentation also shows that the total generating capability at present was 13,801MW - hydel 4,994MW, Gencos 1,938MW and IPPs 6,869MW.
The Ministry claimed that currently, power cuts in Lahore lasted just six hours, Islamabad four hours, Rawalpindi six hours, Faisalabad between 4 and eight hours, Gujranwala, Peshawar, Multan and Hyderabad seven hours each. Power cuts in rural areas lasted between 10 and 12 hours.
However, this correspondent was forced to conclude that the situation on the ground in various cities in relation to power cuts did not match the figures in the cabinet presentation.
Official documents showed that the Cabinet in its meeting on June 26, 2012 had decided that Pakistan State Oil (PSO) would supply 28,000 tons of oil daily to add 1,200MW to the national grid. However, the decision was not implemented. The Petroleum Ministry was also directed to provide 15mmcfd gas immediately to Faisalabad Power Plant for generation of 65MW which, according to official documents, is being implemented.
However, Finance Ministry is releasing payments to PSO for purchase of 28,000 tons of oil daily from tariff differential subsidy in a timely manner.
The documents also showed that upon the request of the Ministry of Water and Power to divert 207mmcfd of gas to the power sector, the Petroleum Ministry showed inability to reduce gas supplies from other sectors.
The committee comprising Ministers for Water and Power, information, the Prime Minister's Advisor on Petroleum and the Minister for Kashmir Affairs, formed to persuade Punjab industry and the CNG sector to agree to closing down the industry and CNG stations for an additional day, had also made no progress.