China's GDP supports Asia forex trade

14 Jul, 2012

Most emerging Asian currencies turned higher on Friday as investors covered short positions after China's growth data provided brief support, but most regional units were set for weekly losses on worries about the slowing global economy. Early in the day, Asia ex-Japan currencies slid as data showed Singapore economy surprisingly contracted in the second quarter and South Korea's central bank lowered growth forecasts.
But emerging Asian units such as the Philippine peso recouped those losses after China's second-quarter growth met market expectations, prompting investors to unwind bearish bets which they had built up in anticipation of a weaker number.
The world's No 2 economy grew 7.6 percent in April-June quarter from a year earlier, its slowest pace in three years.
The Indian rupee and the South Korean won found further support from demand from corporates such as South Korean exporters, dealers said.
Still, fears of a slowdown in the global economy and euro zone debt problems have dampened sentiment for riskier assets such as emerging Asian currencies, whose economies are largely export driven, dealers and analysts said.
Moody's Investors Service surprised markets early in the day by downgrading Italy's government bond rating by two notches to Baa2 and warned it could cut further. Credit Agricole CIB said in a note that weaker growth numbers in major markets and emerging countries, as well as a lack of details on European debt plans have opened the door to the markets possibly pricing in a harsher global slowdown.
"The third quarter will still likely to be under a largely risk-off trading environment. So, emerging Asian currencies would be vulnerable," said Frances Cheung, the bank's senior strategist in Hong Kong.
Emmanuel Ng, foreign exchange strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, expected more negative shocks from the global economy, but expected them to be tempered by hopes that the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan may ease monetary conditions further. The won initially hit a two-week low of 1,155.4 as the central bank cut its 2012 GDP growth forecast to 3.0 percent from a 3.5 percent.
But it turned firmer to end local trade at 1,150.3 after China's economic growth data and as offshore funds and exporters bought it on dips.
Foreign investors sold a combined net 1.26 Korean won ($1.09 billion) in the country's main stock exchange during the five consecutive sessions, according to data from the Korea Exchange.
South Korean interest rate swaps (IRS) also extended their plunge. Five-year IRS dropped to 2.900 percent, the lowest since 1999 as offshore funds cut their paid positions following the rate cut. One-year IRS also dropped to the lowest since October 2010.
The Singapore dollar eased as sluggish second-quarter growth data prompted some expectations that the Monetary Authority of Singapore may ease its policy in October meeting.
The city-state's currency also came under pressure as investors took profits from its gains against the Malaysian ringgit. But the Singapore dollar found some support as hedge funds bought it on dips. The rupiah slid on selling from foreign banks, although the central bank was spotted buying it through state-run banks.

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