After the show of force by the 11-party Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) in Gujranwala and Karachi, what the near future holds for the country is likely to become a topic of hot speculation. Considering the size of Gujranwala city, the PDM show made up in spirit and enthusiasm for the less than 100,000 participants some anticipated. This was made possible by the contribution of the three main actors in PDM. Punjab retaining its reputation as a Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) stronghold, saw the party mobilising at reasonable strength for the Gujranwala rally, with Nawaz Sharif's political heir-apparent, his daughter Maryam Nawaz, adding charisma and glamour in equal measure to the proceedings. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) had its young chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari leading the charge from PPP Punjab Secretary Kaira's home constituency Lalamusa down the historic GT Road to Gujranwala. Maulana Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) too fielded its relatively sombre cadre in good numbers.
In the case of Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari playing a leading role, the dynastic transition to the next generation appears all but complete. PML-N's 'hosting' Bilawal in Gujranwala was reciprocated by the PPP's enthusiastic welcome to Maryam Nawaz in Karachi. Perhaps the transition to the younger generation of leadership of these two major parties will also bury the track record of both cooperation and backstabbing they have displayed since the 1980s, to their own mutual disadvantage.
The Karachi rally was obviously bigger than Gujranwala, but this was to be expected. Karachi's size, the mobilisation of the PPP's jiyala support base throughout Sindh, where it is in office, and the coinciding of the PDM rally with the PPP's commemoration of the Karsaaz attacks on Benazir Bhutto's cavalcade on October 18, 2007 on her return from exile ensured both the enthusiasm and turnout would be huge.
As for the narratives of the two sides of this latest, but of familiar pattern from the past, confrontation, no surprises there. The PDM regularly castigates the incumbent Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government of Imran Khan as 'selected' (through rigging the 2018 general elections) and the civilian window dressing for actual control by the establishment. It also points to the obvious failure in governance and managing the country's affairs by this two-year-old regime foisted undemocratically on the people. For good measure, of late, amongst the actual or alleged failures in foreign policy, the PDM has added the alleged 'sellout' of the Kashmir cause by Imran Khan.
As for the government, it too relies on predictable noise about how the PDM's agenda is Indian-inspired. This 'patriot' card has been the stock-in-trade of successive governments, military and civilian, to lump all critics and dissidents in the catchall anti-state basket. Frankly, the currency of this tired old gambit is by now in serious peril. Whereas the government has not been able to add to, or move on from, its NRO rhetoric, its narrative is sounding limp and ineffective by now, for overuse if for no other reason. On the other hand, its silence on substantive issues such as the economy, inflation (particularly food), unemployment and the growing mass sentiment of disappointment and disillusionment with the government is not helped by constant reiteration of the blame being placed on the previous governments' doorstep. After all, governments are expected to tackle even the most difficult problems inherited from the past. Failure to do so cannot be papered over by the constant harping on the responsibility of past governments for the mess the country finds itself in. As speakers at the Karachi PDM rally reminded us, Imran Khan in his election pledges had promised 10 million jobs and five million low cost houses to ease the people's woes. Instead, increasing joblessness and more concentration on showpiece real estate development projects like the Ravi River Urban Development project or the controversial Sindh and Balochistan islands takeover for real estate and tourist development smack of favouring the rich (local and expatriate) without a thought for the struggling poor or middle class.
Government's economic management of industry and agriculture, buffeted no doubt by the Covid pandemic, appears to be at sea with little or no policy perspective in view. Admittedly, agriculture has suffered neglect for long, with little in the way of prioritising crops and their patterns, tackling water scarcity and organising research to inculcate modern agricultural practices.
The sugar mafia, which includes worthies from both sides of the political divide, seems untouchable despite one of the biggest scandals surrounding the legerdemain of and sheer robbery committed by the sugar barons. Wheat shortages have pushed the price of the people's staple, flour, beyond many sections' reach. Governments in our past have been toppled for far less. This Imran Khan government owes it to its powerful backers for still being in the governing seat. But reminding people of this day in and day out is by now producing diminishing political returns, proving a source of embarrassment for the establishment, and helping hollow out the credibility of Imran Khan's government.
If the PDM momentum of Gujranwala and Karachi continues or even gains in velocity and mass, what are the portents for the future? From the point of view of the interests of the country, a fresh, genuinely free and fair election might defuse the confrontation. This could be called by Imran Khan or dictated by an establishment beginning to realise its 'experiment' has failed spectacularly. Otherwise, if the momentum simply grows from rally to rally without anything except vengeful rhetoric emanating from the prime minister, your guess is as good as mine. But that open-ended uncertainty certainly cannot go on forever.
If not defused by the announcement of a fresh, free and fair election, the confrontation could take an ugly, perhaps even a violent form. Food for thought for those war-gaming the next move.
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Copyright Business Recorder, 2020