ISLAMABAD: The elections for the Legislative Assembly of Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) are going to be held today in the backdrop of a heated debate of making G-B the country's fifth province.
A total of 24 GBLA seats are up, for which some 320 candidates have jumped into the fray - with a few exceptions, it is believed that the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) may wear the royal cap as it has been the practice that whosoever rules Islamabad, controls G-B.
Interestingly, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz - which completed its term in June 2020 - is not expected to win more than one or two seats, despite the fact that the party enjoyed a two-third majority during its five-year term. The reason behind this, according to political pundits, is that almost all the electables of the party have joined either the PTI or contesting election as independent candidates.
The two religio-political parties including Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen (MWM) and Pakistan Islami Tehreek (PIT) are likely to grab two to three seats in the election.
The five-year term of previous assembly had ended on June 24, bringing an end the rule of PML-N. Complicating the issue is that all the political parties are claiming the credit for giving G-B full constitutional status. This has become more important after the breakdown of dialogue among the key state institutions, particularly the military and the opposition parties. At the moment, the opposition parties hold the upper hand when it comes to the future of G-B. They understand that without their support in the parliament, G-B cannot become Pakistan's fifth province.
This is reflective of their position to not discuss any constitutional changes before the election concludes in G-B.
A total of 25 candidates are contesting elections from GBLA-1 (Gilgit-1) but a tough contest is expected between a few heavyweights.
In this constituency, former speaker and PML-N leader Jaffarullah, PPP candidate Amjad Hussain Advocate, Maulana Sultan Raees (Independent), PTI's Johar Ali, Pakistan Rah-e-Haq Party candidate Himayat Ullah, and Syed Mustafa Shah of Islami Tehreek are in the run. A neck-and-neck contest is expected between the PPP's Amjad Advocate and Maulana Sultan Raees (Independent), who has reportedly managed to garner the support of religious and sectarian groups. Of a total of 25 candidates from GBLA-2 (Gilgit-II), the real contest is expected between the former chief minister and the PML-N candidate Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman and PPP candidate Jamil Ahmed.
Interestingly, the PTI candidate Fateh Ullah Khan, who is also general secretary of the party in G-B, is apparently not doing well compared to his rivals. In GBLA-3 (Gilgit-III), elections have been delayed after the death of PTI President Syed Jaffer Shah, who was also the candidate in the constituency.
The PTI has given this ticket to Jafar Shah's son after the severe criticism it faced deciding to grant ticket to former minister Dr Iqabl, who deserted the PML-N and joined the PTI.
Despite joining the PTI formally, Dr Iqbal would be contesting the election as an independent candidate. A total of 18 candidates were initially in the run from GBLA-4 (Nagar-1), but the real contest is expected between the PPP candidate Amjad Hussain Advocate and Muhammad Ayub Waziri of the Islami Tehreek Pakistan. Some 26 candidates are contesting elections from GBLA-5 (Nagar-II), but the real contest is expected between Rizwan Ali of MWM, Javed Ali Manva (Independent), and Mirza Hussain of PPP.
From GBLA-6 (Hunza), the PTI's Col Ubaidullah Baig (retd) and Noor Muhammad (independent) will be facing a tough contest.
The PTI split in this constituency, after the party awarded ticket to Baig, Noor Muhammad decided to contest the election as an independent candidate.
In GBLA-19 (Ghizer-I), a tough contest is expected between PPP's Syed Jalal Ali Shah, Nawaz Khan Naji (Independent), PTI's Zafar Muhammad Shadumkhel, and Shakil Ahmed (Independent).
Of 12 candidates from GBLA-20 (Ghizer-II), a tough contest is expected between PPP's Ali Madad Sher, PML-Q's Khan Akbar Khan, Fida Khan (Independent), and PML-N's Muhammad Nazar Khan.
At GBLA-21 (Ghizer-III), the main contest is expected between PML-N's Ghulam Muhammad, PPP's Muhammad Ayub, PTI's Raja Jahanzeb, Rehmat Rahim (Independent), Hafeez-ur-Rehman (Independent), and Abdul Saboor Khan (Independent).
GBLA-7 Skardu-I may be clinched by PTI candidate Raja Muhammad Zakria as he has succeeded to get the support of some independent candidates against the PPP candidate, the former chief minister Syed Mehdi Shah. GBLA-8 (Skardu-II), the most popular candidate is reportedly from MWM, an ally of the PTI. He has competition with Syed M Ali Shah of PPP and Imtiaz Haider Khan (Independent). Despite Bilawal Bhutto's extensive campaign, the PPP candidate is unlikely to win the election in this constituency. GBLA-9 Skardu-III, PTI candidate and former GBLA speaker Fida Muhammad Nashad and Wazir Muhammad Salem (Independent) are the leading candidates. Nashad, who has been the winner in the constituency many times, is still considered the stronger candidate. At GBLA-10 (Skardu-IV), the main competition is expected between Raja Nasir Ali (Independent) and Wazir Hassan of the PTI.
The other potential candidates in the constituency are Muhammad Sikandar Ali of Islami Tehreek Pakistan, Ghulam Abbas of PML-N, and Najaf Ali, an independent.
At GBLA-11 (Kharmang), the contest is expected to be between PTI's Syed Amjad Ali, Syed Mohsin Rizvi (Independent), PML-N's Shabbir Hussain, and Iqbal Hussain. In this constituency, the PTI candidate is said to have a strong vote bank.
A total of four candidates are in the field from GBLA-12 (Shigar) and the main contest is expected between PPP's Imran Nadeem and Muhammad Azam Khan of the PTI.
The main contest at GBLA-22 (Ghanche-I), is expected between PTI's Muhammad Ibrahim Sanai, Mushtaq Hussain (Independent), and PPP's Muhammad Jaffer.
In this constituency, the PTI candidate is tipped to win the polls. At GBLA-23 (Ghanche-II), the main contest is expected between Amina Ansari of PTI, Ghulam Hussain of PML-N, Abdul Hameed (Independent), and Ghulam Ali Haideri of PPP.
Amina has reportedly a better position after getting support from some religious scholars in the area.
From GBLA-24 (Ghanche-III), a total of five candidates are contesting elections and the main contest is expected between PPP's Muhammad Ismail, PML-Q's Muhammad Ibrahim Taban, and PTI's Syed Shamsuddin.
Diamer Division: Of a total of 12 candidates, the main contest at GBLA-13 (Astore-I) is between Dr Ghulam Abbas (Independent), PTI's Khalid Khurshid, PPP's Abdul Hameed, and PML-N's Rana Farman Ali.
At GBLA-14 Astore-II, the main contest is expected between PTI's Shamsul Haq Lone, PML-N's Rana Muhamad Farooq, and PPP's Muzaffar Ali Relay.
The influential Gorikot Ulema Council has announced support for the PTI candidate, and according to political observers, Shamul Haq Lone is expected to win election in this constituency.
At GBLA-15 Diamer-I, the main showdown is predicted between PPP's Bashir Ahmed, Shah Baig (Independent) and JUI-F's Waliur Rehman.
In this constituency, Thak and Niat areas have a large number of voters, and the Syed Beradari's votes are also considered crucial for any candidate to win the seat.
At GBLA-16 Diamer-II, a tough fight is expected between Muhammad Anwar of the PML-N, PPP's Dilbar Khan, Attaulla (Independent), and Abdul Aziz of PML-Q.
Here the PML-Q candidate, according to locals, is the strongest candidate, and the Soniwal tribe has announced their support for him.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020