Russia's wheat harvest is likely to be below 47 million tonnes this year, as drought that has damaged part of its crop is seen cutting yields further in the productive northern region, French farm data supplier Geosys said in the lowest forecast to date. A Reuters poll of analysts on June 28 put the median wheat crop estimate at 50.5 million tonnes with the lowest forecast, by Russia's farm ministry, at 47.5 million tonnes.
"In addition to the drought in the South, the potential in the North is lower than in 2011 which makes us think that USDA's forecast of 49 million is not quite right," Geosys crop analyst Franck Lonca told Reuters in an interview on Thursday. "We are far below that, at less than 47 million tonnes," he added.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its latest world grain forecasts on July 11, estimated the Russian wheat crop this year at 49 million tonnes, against 56.2 million harvested in 2011. The fall in Russia's grain crop has raised concerns that the country may again impose export restrictions as it did in 2010 when severe drought ravaged its crops, sending world prices rocketing.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said last week, however, that the country had no grounds to ban exports this year. Geosys sells internet-based crop predictions and crop-management tools using satellite data combined with agronomic information and weather forecasts. "In the Volga, Ural and Siberia regions, the vegetation is sharply lower than in 2011 so we remain pessimistic," Lonca, whose team has regular contacts with Russia, said.