SINGAPORE: Brent oil may retest a support at $64.58 per barrel, a break below which could open the way towards $62.65.

The fall from the Feb. 25 high of $67.70 is so deep that it extended below a rising wedge, which proved to be a top pattern. A five-wave cycle from $54.48 may have completed.

A retracement analysis on the cycle reveals a target zone of $61.09-$62.65, formed by the 50% and the 38.2% levels. The support at $64.58 triggered a weak bounce which may end around $65.77.

On the daily chart, oil retreated below a falling trendline. This move confirmed a false break above a key resistance at $66.29, the 100% projection level of an upward wave C from $35.74.

This wave could either end around $66.29 or extend a lot to $85.17. Regardless of the ending point of this wave, a consolidation around $66.29 is ongoing.

Unless oil could quickly stand above $66.29, it is more likely to fall towards $62.14.

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