The week just past was marked by a significant de-escalation in the judiciary-executive conflict, the open voicing of Islamabad media's disenchantment with the statistics revealed by the Federal Finance Minister and, last but not least, the approval of the US-Pakistan written agreement by the cabinet, copies of which were retrieved after the cabinet meeting. Each of these seemingly disconnected events were steps towards ensuring that the PPP-led government does not have to call general election any earlier than what the constitution allows for.
When are elections due as per the constitution? Article 52 of the constitution stipulates that "the National Assembly shall, unless sooner dissolved, continue for a term of five years from the day of its first meeting and shall stand dissolved at the expiration of its term." This would imply the National Assembly would stand dissolved on 18th March 2013.
But what if an emergency is declared? There is one relevant article of the constitution namely Article 232 of the 1973 constitution which deals with the promulgation of emergency with four sub-clauses that require a mention. First, 232 (1) stipulates that emergency can be declared by the President alone when "the President is satisfied that a grave emergency exists in which the security of Pakistan, or any part thereof is threatened by a war or external aggression, or by internal disturbance beyond the power of a provincial government to control." This particular sub-clause has already been invoked by President Asif Ali Zardari once in February 2009 when he imposed Governor's rule. It was perhaps a case of once bitten twice shy and a learning curve for the PML (N) which probably accounts for the following addition in the 18th Amendment passed in April 2010 - a year later: "Provided that for imposition of emergency due to internal disturbances beyond the powers of a provincial government to control, a resolution from the provincial assembly of that province shall be required. Provided further, that if the President acts on his own, the Proclamation of Emergency shall be placed before both Houses of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) for approval by each House within ten days." The amendment would still enable the President to declare emergency in the country or in any province if the coalition partners are on board in the National Assembly while the Senate would be a push over with a PPP majority.
Second, Article 232 (6) has remained unchanged and stipulates that "while a proclamation of emergency is in force parliament may by law extend the term of the National Assembly for a period not exceeding one year and not extending in any case beyond a period of six months after the proclamation has ceased to be in force". This particular clause has been used by military dictators though, as it is contained in the constitution, it is available to the President if he decides to issue a proclamation of emergency. In this event constitutionally elections can be postponed till 18th September 2014. And as all - PPP and its detractors maintain - the constitution is supreme.
Article 232 (7) of the constitution states that "a proclamation shall be laid before a joint sitting which shall be summoned by the President to meet within 30 days of the proclamation being issued and (a) shall cease to be in force at the expiration of two months unless before the expiration of that period it has been approved by a resolution of the joint sitting" - again an easy win for the President if the coalition remains on board. In this context while the MQM and the ANP may hesitate to extend support the PML (Q) with few prospects of significant gains in the next elections alone would not. It is significant that the PML (N) has publicly announced that they would contest the elections jointly.
Article 232 (8) of the 1973 constitution that has remained unchanged after the 18th Amendment stipulates that "notwithstanding anything contained in the clause 232 (7) if the National Assembly stands dissolved at the time when a Proclamation of Emergency is issued, the Proclamation can continue in force for a period of four months but, if a general election to the assembly is not held before the expiration of that period, it shall cease to be in force at the expiration of that period unless it has earlier been approved by a resolution of the Senate." And the PPP, as stated above, has a clear majority in the Senate.
The critical question of course is whether emergency can be legitimately declared? With respect to the economy it is evident that not a single macroeconomic indicator that is an outcome of government policy is favourable or has even begun to show a favourable trend: inflation, unemployment, energy crisis, the failure to reform public sector entities that continue to run huge losses, the current account deficit, the budget deficit, the trade gap, industrial output, all are showing negative trends. Remittances have grown, that are linked to the global recession as well as State Bank of Pakistan's policies. The data presented by the Finance Ministry is now openly challenged with no one, not even cabinet members or senior officials in the Ministry of Finance (on condition of anonymity) accepting the deliberately manipulated data. Access to foreign lending rose dramatically during the first few years of the present government but then tapered off due to failure to implement agreed reforms. Heavy borrowing from the domestic banking sector has led to crowding out of the private sector with further negative consequences on growth.
In the field of foreign relations, the government has been engaged in a series of actions that have baffled the people of this country especially with respect to allowing discord with the US to stretch to seven months and then agreeing to the same terms of engagement as before. Some analysts with close ties to our decision-makers argue that the country was forced to back track because the US was ready to declare the Haqqani network a terror group, link our establishment with it, and subsequently declare the country a terror state. However, post-resumption of Nato supply route on the 25th of July the US Congress, by voice vote, approved a bill that would require Hillary Clinton to report whether the Haqqani network meets the criteria to be designated a foreign terrorist organisation and if not, to explain why. True, Obama may not sign the bill but this may well take on the form of the Pressler Amendment: or in other words, the US administration would have this as leverage against Pakistan.
Law and order problems have exacerbated in not only the tribal areas but in Balochistan as well as major cities of Sindh and Punjab. No day passes without a Taliban terror attack and/or sectarian- and ethnic-related clashes with the number of innocent victims rising with each passing day.
There are thus multiple grounds for the declaration of emergency though in case the President opts for this the obvious challenge would be that he has dismissed his own government. However, the President is astute enough to blame individuals and come up with a new second-tier leadership quite effortlessly. Additionally, it would be politically savvy for the President to lay the entire blame for the state of the economy and foreign affair blunders, however unjustified, on the two ministers who are not long-term PPP loyalists and who, die-hard PPP jiyalas maintain joined the party because PPP was in power and may well be the first ones to defect once the party is out of power. Law and order, the PPP government has always maintained, is a provincial subject and the army has been given the mandate to deal with terror.
The declaration of emergency would, without doubt, necessitate taking the military on board. However, the senior echelons in the military have been associated with some glaring blunders that began with revelations by WikiLeaks to the Raymond Davis issue to the raid by the US marines on Osama bin Laden's (OBL) compound and the public admission by the then ISI Director General that incompetence rather than complicity was the reason why his organisation was unaware of bin Laden's residence in Abbottabad. Also astounding for the people of Pakistan was the admission by the military high-ups that they remained unaware of the dawn raid on OBL - an operation that lasted over 6 to 8 hours and included the blowing up of a helicopter.
General Kayani has to-date evinced no interest in launching a coup. But would he support a proclamation of emergency? One assumes that would depend on public reaction which may be manipulated by major opposition parties including the PML (N) and the PTI. However even they would be forced to accept that the decision to declare an emergency is not violative of the constitution which, all agree, is supreme - a decision which would be like pulling a rabbit out of a hat which President Zardari does seem to excel at.