FORT COLLINS, (Colo.) China is taking in record amounts of soybeans from the United States and Brazil as its hog population recovers from a deadly disease that began nearly three years ago, but import expansion into the next marketing year might be minimal.

Additionally, China continues to report new outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF). Many market-watchers are growing fearful that the disease could be worse than it appears, adding uncertainty around the direction of global feed ingredient trade over the next year or so.

Beijing on Wednesday reported an ASF outbreak in the northwest region of Xinjiang, the latest in a handful of cases confirmed this year. The wider geographic distribution of these incidents adds to the concern that the problems might be more severe than is being publicized.

Still, there is a general expectation that feed demand will continue to grow over the next year, even if at a slower rate. The US Department of Agriculture’s Beijing counterpart last week set Chinese soybean imports at 100 million tonnes for 2021-22, which begins on Oct. 1 in China.

That would be up from the 99 million estimated by USDA’s Beijing post for 2020-21, but it is identical to USDA’s official 2020-21 estimate, suggesting China’s appetite for US soybeans through mid-2022 might not be much different than it is now.

China’s interest in US corn has entered a completely new paradigm, as the country has purchased at least 23.2 million tonnes to be shipped in the 2020-21 US season. That will dwarf the prior export record of 5.15 million tonnes from 2011-12, but there are ideas that the volume will continue to grow into 2021-22.

Last week, China’s agriculture ministry outlined a plan to lower corn and soymeal content in animal feed in favour of other grains, which could disrupt its need for corn and soy imports. However, analysts are skeptical because the availability of alternative feed ingredients pales in comparison to that of soybeans. Additionally, China might be hesitant to increasingly use grains like wheat and rice in livestock feed because those are heavily stockpiled by the government for purposes of food security.