MADRID: With virus cases rising and its vaccination drive delayed, Madrid heads into an election campaign Sunday ahead of a vote likely to cement the right-wing's hold on Spain's wealthiest region.
If the latest polls are correct, the May 4 vote looks set to hand victory to the region's right-wing leader Isabel Diaz Ayuso, whose Popular Party (PP) could end up governing with the support of the far-right Vox.
The vote could have important ramifications for Spain's broader political scene, and particularly for the political future of some of the leaders involved, although analysts say it's unlikely to have an immediate impact on the left-wing coalition of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
Sunday marks the start of a two-week election campaign which ends on May 2, two days before the snap election which was called on March 10 by Ayuso after she abruptly broke off her coalition agreement with the centre-right Ciudadanos party.
At stake is the "jewel in the crown" -- leadership of Spain's richest region, with a population of 6.6 million, but which has suffered the most deaths and infections since the coronavirus epidemic began in March 2020.
Six parties are contesting the vote: the PP, the Socialists and the far-left Podemos -- partners in Spain's minority ruling coalition -- Ciudadanos, Vox and the hard-left Mas Madrid, with surveys consistently putting Ayuso in front.
Most polls suggest the 42-year-old will secure around 40 percent of the vote and a comfortable win, with a survey published Friday giving her 56-57 deputies in the 136-seat regional assembly, while falling short of the 69 needed for an absolute majority.
Seats are attributed on a proportional basis, but a party needs to get five percent of the ballots to have seats.
With Ciudadanos not assured of reaching this critical five percent threshold, the PP's natural bedfellow would be Vox, which was seen securing 13-14 seats, with a tie-up likely securing them a majority.
"Polls suggest the right-wing bloc would get approximately 52-53 percent of the vote, but there could be last-minute shifts that could end up tipping the balance," Pablo Simon, a political scientist at Madrid's Carlos III University, told AFP.
"A very likely option is that the PP will govern alone (in a minority) with Vox's parliamentary support, but without them holding public office."