Russian grain exports are off to a fast start in the new agricultural year even though Russia's exportable surplus has shrunk drastically in a drought which slashed yields in key producing regions, a top Russian grain analyst said on Friday.
Most forecasters think exports will fall by at least half from last year's record 28.1 million tonnes, most of which was wheat but also included rice, flour equivalent and legumes, predictions which have helped fuel speculation of an export ban and underpinned wheat prices on international futures markets.
SovEcon Chief Executive Andrei Sizov Sr. told Reuters Russia exported 2 million tonnes of grain in July, the first month of the new agricultural year, and is likely to export 2.5 million tonnes in August. The July export volume was "second only to July of last year," SovEcon Chief Executive Andrei Sizov Sr. told Reuters by telephone. Russia's July exports hit a record for the month last year when exports resumed after a 10-month ban prompted by a summer 2010 drought.
A trade source at one of Russian grain exporters said that out of the July figure, 1.8 million tonnes was wheat, which is among the first crops to be harvested in Russia's key southern exporting regions. As this summer's drought has spread, Russian crop forecasts have been cut repeatedly, sharpening parallels with the 2010 season, when the government shocked markets with a snap decision to ban exports, though officials have hinted they hope to avoid limits this year.