SINGAPORE: US oil may break a support at $63.88 per barrel and fall to $62.62.

The break above a resistance at $65.45 on Monday proved to be false. The downtrend from the May 5 high of $66.76 may have resumed.

The trend could be riding on a wave C, the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the March 8 high of $67.98.

It might be too early to predict the target of this wave C. Based on the strength of the wave B, this wave C may be much shorter than the wave A, probably to end in $61.35-$62.62 range.

A break above $65.45 could lead to a gain into $66.52-$67.98 range. On the daily chart, oil is undergoing its second correction, triggered by a strong resistance zone of $65.65-$66.60.

This correction is expected to be shallower than the one from the March 8 high of $67.98. It could complete around $61.79, as suggested by an imagined triangle.

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