Malaysian crude palm oil ended flat on Monday as expectations of higher stocks in No 2 producer Malaysia erased higher risk appetite on better-than-expected US jobs data. Investor optimism also grew on talks of more stimulus measures by European Central Bank to tackle the region's crisis but caution remained as traders eye stocks data by industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) due later this week.
"In the near term, the upcoming MPOB's July inventory data could swell above the psychological range of 2 million tonnes," said Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, in a note. The benchmark October palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended flat at 2,918 ringgit ($940) per tonne. Palm oil posted a 0.3 percent loss last week, its fourth straight weekly loss.
Traded volumes stood at 21,893 lots of 25 tonnes each, thinner than the usual 25,000 lots. Technicals look bearish with Reuters market analyst Wang Tao saying palm oil will fall to 2,880 ringgit as a downtrend from 3,161 ringgit has resumed. Market players are waiting for fresh trading cues from a key supply-demand report from the US Department of Agriculture later this week that will quantify soy crop damage from the worst drought in 56 years.
A lower quality of soybean crop contributing to a drop in soybean oil supply could shift more vegetable oil demand to the cheaper palm oil. Weather concerns closer to Southeast Asia are also in focus as El Nino's dry weather pattern could return by end of the year and hurt production for top palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia. Malaysian palm oil exports in July suffered a double-digit fall from a month ago, reflecting slowing demand from top food buyers China and India, according to cargo surveyor data. In other vegetable markets, by 1008 GMT, the most active US soyoil contract for December delivery had lost 0.6 percent and the most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up 0.6 percent.