Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta coffee, is forecast to export between 70,000 and 100,000 tonnes, or 1.17 million to 1.67 million bags, of beans in August, down from the 110,000 tonnes loaded last month, traders said on Tuesday. Falling supply from Vietnam two months before the new coffee crop year starts in October could help keep global prices stable despite favourable weather for harvesting in Brazil.
"With good prices being maintained, the coffee outflow is looking good and farmers are still selling, while they will also retain some stocks for next season," said a trader in Ho Chi Minh City. Trader estimates for July actual loading at around 110,000 tonnes are above their projections early last month of between 70,000-80,000 tonnes but below a government estimate of 130,000 tonnes.
Robusta beans stood at 43,300-43,700 dong ($2.08-$2.1) per kg on Tuesday in Daklak, the country's largest growing province, widening from 43,500-43,600 dong a week ago. Tuesday's prices represent a fall of nearly 8 percent from a year ago, based on Reuters data. Discounts to London's November robusta contract - which ended 0.6 percent up at $2,215 a tonne on Monday - widened to $60 a tonne this week, from $30-$40 a week ago.
Vietnam's robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and broken stood at $2,155 a tonne, on a free-on-board basis, from $2,156-$2,166 last Tuesday. Traders said Daklak farmers were still holding around 35,000 tonnes, while exporters and foreign firms also have stocks available for loading between August and October, before the harvest begins in the Central Highlands in November.
Trader estimates of 110,000 tonnes for July volume bring Vietnam's shipments between October 2011 and last month - the first 10 months of the 2011/2012 season - to 1.38 million tonnes, or 23 million 60-kg bags, up 20 percent from a year ago. With at least 70,000 tonnes to be loaded this month, the country's export volume would reach 1.45 million tonnes by end-August. That estimate plus current stocks suggests Vietnam will have a record 2011/12 output of 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, traders said. The next 2012/2013 crop could produce less, as productivity often eases after bumper harvests, traders said.
"The next crop could be 10 percent lower than this," the trader in Ho Chi Minh City said. Vietnam's new harvest could produce 22.25 million bags, based on the median estimate in a Reuters poll last month. Last year prolonged rains had slowed cherry ripening and the main harvest started in the Central Highlands coffee belt in November, a month after the crop year began.