Cocoa futures inched up to multi-month highs on Wednesday, supported by the threat of El Nino weather conditions on the West African crop and chart-based buying, while raw sugar closed at a six-week low. Coffee eased with some pressure coming from the firm US dollar.
Liffe cocoa prices rose slightly to a nine-month high of 1,675 pounds per tonne ($2,600) earlier in the day. The market last week broke above the range of 1,367 to 1,621 pounds that had persisted for over six months, indicating bullish technicals on historical price charts.
Both Liffe and ICE cocoa markets have continued to rise after recently breaking above their 200-day moving averages. They are technically at overbought levels on the 14-day relative strength index charts. "There is no denying that cocoa looks astonishingly good on the charts. London's second month closing above 1,651 pounds is unbelievably positive for the bulls," said Eric Sivry, head of agriculture options brokerage at Marex Spectron.
Liffe December cocoa futures closed up 12 pounds, or 0.7 percent, at 1,670 pounds per tonne. ICE December cocoa futures finished up $19, or 0.8 percent, at $2,469 a tonne, their highest settlement for the second position since January. The potential for weather phenomenon El Nino to strike later in the year also underpinned prices. "The key risk to cocoa supply over the coming months is the increasing likelihood of an El Nino weather event, which typically means drier weather conditions in West Africa and could threaten production prospects in the world's largest producers," Barclays Capital said in a daily commodities note.
Dealers kept a close eye on renewed violence in top grower Ivory Coast where gunmen were said to have attacked a military checkpoint in the main city Abidjan on Wednesday, adding to a wave of deadly raids there. Benchmark October sugar futures on ICE fell 0.33 cent, or 1.5 percent, to close at 21.09 cents a lb, the lowest settlement for the spot contract since June 26.
Raw sugar prices have been trading between 19 and 24 cents over the past two months, extending their losses after falling below the 200-day moving average last week and below the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level on Tuesday. October raw sugar futures dropped to a session low at 21.05 cents, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement.
White sugar October futures on Liffe fell $9.00, or 1.5 percent, to end at $589.20 a tonne, after hitting a five-week low at $588.60. September arabicas on ICE eased 2.15 cents, or 1.2 percent, to finish at $1.7050 per lb. Brazil exported 1.81 million 60-kg bags of coffee in July, up a fraction from the 1.79 million bags shipped in the same month a year ago, data from the Cecafe coffee exporters' association showed on Tuesday. November robusta coffee futures dropped $17, or 0.8 percent, to close at $2,177 a tonne.