Copper retreats

09 Aug, 2012

Copper retreated on Wednesday from a one-week high hit in the previous session as a weak euro weighed on metals and because investors were cautious ahead of trade data from top metals consumer China. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at $7,550 a tonne, down 0.40 percent from a close of $7,580 on Tuesday, when it hit a one-week intraday high.
Putting pressure on metals prices was a drop in the euro against the dollar, after data showed German imports fell sharply for the second time in three months in June. A strong dollar makes commodities priced in the US unit more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Investors were waiting for Chinese inflation and industrial production figures due on Thursday and Chinese trade data to be released on Friday for an indication of the pace of growth in a country that accounts for around 40 percent of global copper demand. "China's macro data tomorrow and the trade data on Friday are fairly important for direction as it's a confused picture for copper," said Standard Chartered analyst Daniel Smith.
"Demand is not that bad: in our view it's growing at about 5 percent, and China's imports have been surprising on the upside so it'll be interesting to see how long that carries on. Sentiment on the ground is pretty downbeat though. Obviously the global manufacturing PMI is still turning lower. That's one of the reasons why copper has struggled." Trading volumes remained low, with market participants away for the summer period and as industry in Europe shuts down for maintenance.
Reflecting a lack of conviction about copper's short-term price direction, the open interest in the LME copper contract remained near recent five year lows, despite a slight uptick. Improving risk appetite helped lift copper prices earlier this week, with market participants hoping that the European Central Bank will start buying bonds to help contain surging borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.
"The sense from the recent ECB meeting is that maybe things will not get significantly worse and that the ECB may start to act as a lender of last resort," said Robin Bhar, analyst at Societe Generale. "That perhaps has put a floor under metals prices and, barring any further negative news, one could argue most of the bearish newsflow should be in the price."
Further hopes for easing were raised on the other side of the Atlantic, when Boston Fed Bank President Eric Rosengren said the central bank should launch another bond buying programme of whatever size and duration is necessary to get the economy back on its feet. The metal used in power and construction rose 3.5 percent over the last three days, its biggest three-day rally in more than a month, but is still down almost 2 percent so far this quarter.
In other metals, tin closed at $18,200 from Tuesday's close of $18,270, when it rallied on news Indonesia's PT Timah stopped selling tin on the spot market because of low market prices for the metal. Indicating a tightening market, the premium for cash tin over three months moved from a $16 discount to a $13 premium in Tuesday's trade. Zinc, used in galvanising, ended at $1,869.5 from $1,873, aluminium at $1,915 from $1,909.50 and nickel at $15,740 from Tuesday's close of $15,750. Battery material lead close at $1,911 from Tuesday's close of $1,909 a tonne.

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