PARIS: The Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan has left regional heavyweights Iran and Turkey with a headache — both countries may see an opportunity to boost their influence but neither wants a further influx of refugees.

This is especially the case right now as both countries are battling the coronavirus pandemic and facing economic difficulties.

Analysts say everything depends on the unknown factor — whether the Taliban present a more moderate stance that allows for international cooperation or they return to the unbridled extremism that led to their overthrow in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

“The situation is a huge risk for Turkey, there is no doubt. Iran will also stand to lose if the Taliban returns to its old ways and provides a safe haven” for Islamist extremists, Asli Aydintasbas, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told AFP.

Iran and Turkey both risk seeing substantial inflows of refugees, many of whom cross from Iran into Turkey in the hope of reaching Europe.

Both already host large refugee populations — 3.6 million Syrians in Turkey and 3.5 million Afghans in Iran — and tolerance at home is running out.

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit Iran hard, pushing the sanctions-battered country further into crisis, while in Turkey the economic growth that was always the bulwark of Erdogan’s popularity has faded away.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last week that he was prepared to meet the Taliban leadership in a bid to secure peace while Iran’s new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi said the US military “defeat” in Afghanistan was a chance to bring peace to the country.

On Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu talked of “positive messages” coming from the Taliban on protection for civilians and foreigners, expressing hope they would follow through with positive actions.