Abandoned. Deserted. Gone with the wind. That is what the anguished visuals show. A US Air Force plane taking off with people hanging on its wheels and falling off midair to crush and crash. Hundreds of people jamming the runway of Kabul airport. Jostling to get in the plane as if it was a local bus. Helicopters landing on building tops. A large number of people lined up in front of bank windows for withdrawing cash. And finally, Ashraf Ghani quickly rushing up the aircraft stairs to disappear in a neighbouring country. While this great escape is taking place, the Afghan people sit in fear of yet more uncertainty and despair. They see all those who in the name of being their saviours and rescuers for decades leave them to fend a country without government, without agencies, without police, without army, without administration.
These are scenes that are simply incredible. The might of wealth and ammunition of the world detonated by less than a hundred thousand people with outdated rifles and little else. What has happened is not totally novel but the manner and speed with which it unfolded is unique. There are all sorts of statements being issued by all sides. The US and UN are busy ensuring their people are safely taken out of Kabul. Is anybody bothered about those left behind? Is anybody planning how a country without security in place will be safe? Is anybody bothered about the absolute paralysis in the trade and industry? Is anybody concerned about the chaos on airports, banks, and roads? Those who were a few days ago stating that the Afghan army was trained to handle Taliban advance are clueless and fumbling. The major wrongs in the longest US war in the biggest US miscalculation by the most sophisticated US intelligence network were:
1 Foreign control remains foreign-The US model of control and occupation has become a liability. Vietnam was a revelation but Afghanistan is a naked truth. Helped by social media, the narrative factory of US, India and allies failed the authenticity test. First the claim of building Afghanistan, then developing humanitarian help, then capacity building of the Afghan army all were blown apart one by one. The methodology of forced imposition of US systems and western values created more and more resistance in the resilient Afghans. Force was combatted by violence, which was responded by more bombs and ammunition. Bodies for blood and blood for bodies. At the end the occupiers called it quits as they found out that you can destroy lives and livelihoods but not ideologies.
2 The learning curve-While US seemed to repeat the same mistakes, Taliban seemed to have learned from their mistakes. Unexpectedly, they have taken over Kabul in a non-violent manner and have announced a total amnesty for all. This is also shocking for international community. Expecting bloodshed and then using that to justify further invasion, the allies are at a loss for words and strategy. There has to be an introspection of why the same failed strategy from Saigon to Kabul has not been revised. There has to be soul-searching for this continuous desire for occupation, imposition, destruction.
3 The chosen leaders-One of the problems US has had is that they always support puppet governments. Ashraf Ghani was working on a personal agenda. His corruption was an open secret. He was working on India's agenda against Pakistan and giving misleading information to US. President Biden in his speech admitted that Ashraf Ghani kept on saying the Afghan forces will now be able to fight on their own. From Hamid Karzai to Ashraf Ghani the Americans want appeasing puppet leaders. The problem with such choices is that these planted self-centered leaders are never going to have either Afghan or American interest in their heart.
So, is everything lost? No. What is that Pakistan and the world need to do? They need to:
Engage and ensure dialogue-Pakistan's stance of being partners in peace is a shared vision with the world, including US. The peace dialogue should continue and Pakistan needs to be talking to all stakeholders for the formation of an all-inclusive government in Afghanistan. Pakistan has and should act as a bridge between the West and Afghanistan. Pakistan's embassy is facilitating foreigners for visas, etc., and should serve as facilitators of services. It is good that the heads of the UK, Germany and Denmark are all talking to the head of Pakistan. Pakistan's positioning as country that will ensure peace and safety needs continuous, crafted strategic communication.
Focus on human development-That is the most important area. Education and health are foundations for development. Taliban have announced that unlike last time they will let girls' education and jobs continue. That needs to be leveraged by Pakistan. The development model of KP in promoting education and health that won PTI a reelection can be used with adaptations to the Afghan local customization. Pakistan should also encourage development agencies to work with Pakistan and Afghanistan to help the new government in Afghanistan to deal with humanitarian issues.
Facilitate trade and regional development-Afghanistan is the heart of Asia. It is the corridor to Central Asia. Pakistan needs to encourage the new government to be part of its 'Central Asian Vision'. The potential in transit trade, the building of the train corridor, the CPEC, Gwadar are all mutually beneficial gold mines that were being detonated by terrorism sponsored by spoilers.
These are defining moments in history. The world has given war a chance for 20 years in Afghanistan. Time for them to give peace a chance for the next 20 years. Let the Afghans decide their own fate. Let the country live their own culture and values. Let the Afghans live in peace. The US and the allies are fleeing and disengaging. From abandonment to Occupation and then abandonment again is a proven recipe for disaster. Engagement is the key.
For Pakistan this is a moment of serious, strategic manoeuvres. Pakistan has a multidimensional role to play. It has to act as the peace facilitator in the region. It has to be the service provider to Western allies stuck in Afghanistan. It has to be the bridge between the Taliban and the global community. And it has to ensure that the Afghan terror legacy discontinues. Any of these roles amiss will be lost opportunities. Played well, with true intent, and skill, Pakistan can be the central pivot of development, connectivity and prosperity in the region.
(The writer can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021