Clearer weather in the past week has allowed wheat harvesting to accelerate in France and Germany and to get underway in the UK, with concerns continuing that crop quality will be mixed after a damp summer so far in some key grain belts. Rain in late spring and early summer in western Europe initially benefited crops that had suffered from frost and dryness and spared the region from the kind of crop losses facing the drought-hit United States and Black Sea countries.
But persistent showers have delayed fieldwork and led to worries about damage to yields and above all to quality, which determines whether wheat can be used for bread. In France, the European Union's top wheat producer and exporter, harvesting was into its final stages, although the return of rain on Tuesday brought a further delay to unfinished wheat cutting in the far north.
In a harvest update late last week, farm office FranceAgriMer said the soft wheat crop should be above 36.5 million tonnes on the basis of a national yield of 7.5 tonnes. "In most regions, yields are higher than the five-year average. This is notably due to the cool, wet conditions during spring," it said.
Among private forecasters, grain consultancy Agritel sees the crop at 35.8 million tonnes, well below both FranceAgriMer's outlook and the farm ministry's estimate of 36.7 million tonnes. After unsettled weather on Tuesday and Wednesday, dry and increasingly hot conditions are forecast in northern France for the rest of the week, which could allow the harvest to be wrapped up. Germany's wheat harvest is starting to make rapid progress following repeated rain, which delayed work in many regions.
Over half the harvest has been gathered and work is expected to continue at full speed this week. In the most recent forecast from a major player, grain trader Toepfer forecast the German 2012 wheat crop at 23.18 million tonnes, up from 22.70 million in 2011. Britain's wheat harvest has got underway during the last few days but is running well behind normal and further wet weather is forecast this week.