Russia's exportable grain surplus of 10-11 million tonnes could run out by November if the country retains a high pace of exports in coming months, SovEcon agricultural analysts said on Wednesday, fanning fearss about Russian export limits SovEcon expects Russia to export 2.5-3.0 million tonnes of grain in August and the same amount in September, up from 2.13 million tonnes in July.
Russia's officials estimate the country's 2012/13 grain exportable surplus in a range of 10-12 million tonnes, with the grain crop forecast at 75-80 million tonnes. SovEcon said it slightly cut Russia's 2012 grain crop forecast to 70-74 million tonnes, from the previously expected 72-75 million tonnes, but have not yet decreased its wheat estimate.
Russia's wheat is competitive on the global markets at current prices, but its domestic market could become more attractive later, when the high pace of exports will exhaust its exportable surplus and cause domestic prices to increase, SovEcon added.
Global corn and wheat prices rose about 50 percent in the six weeks up to the end of July and soybeans by around 20 percent as US crops were scorched by heat and drought. Leading wheat importers Egypt and Algeria seized a modest correction in grains prices this week to resume buying in what traders said reflected market fears that high prices are here to stay due to a devastating US drought and an expected Russian export ban.