KARACHI: The Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) kept its official spot rate, on Tuesday, unchanged at Rs 16,700 per maund while the cotton trade remained steady with low trading volume.
Stating this, a cotton analyst Naseem Usman, said that price of the Phutti of Sindh remained from Rs 4500-7300 per 40 kilograms; Punjab’s Phutti attracted per 40 kilograms prices from Rs 5500 to Rs 7800. Similarly, Phutti from Balochistan was traded at Rs 6500 per 40 kilograms to Rs 7800 per 40 kilograms.
Cotton prices from Sindh remained from Rs 13,500 to Rs 16,800 per maund, Punjab’s cotton was traded from Rs 14,500 to Rs 16,500 per maund and Balochistan’s cotton prices remained from Rs 16,000 per maund to Rs 16,500 per maund.
While Banola from Punjab was traded from Rs 1,350 to Rs 2,300 per maund, Punjab’s crop was traded from Rs 1,800 to Rs 2,300 per maund and Balochistan’s Banola was traded from Rs 1,700 to Rs 2,300 per maund, added Naseem Usman.
As per the daily market report, domestic transactions witnessed sale of 1000 bales from Dherki from Rs 16,500 to Rs 17,200 per maund, 1800 bales from Rohri from Rs 14,950 to Rs 16,000 per maund, 600 bales from Saleh Pat at Rs 14,950 per maund, 2600 bales from Khair Pur at Rs 14,900 per maund, 200 bales of Mian Wali attracted a price of Rs 16,800 per maund, 200 bales of Fort Abbas were sold at Rs 16,400 per maund, 200 bales from Sadiqabad at Rs 15,950 and 600 bales of Haroonabad were traded at Rs 15,000 per maund.
Meanwhile, Karachi Cotton Association has also asked its members to forward their proposals for budget 2022-23 as invited by the Sindh Revenue Board.
Naseem Usman referring to a news item said, currently, the arrivals of seed cotton in India is lower than previous years and is hard to increase apparently, which is likely to be restrained by the 7.8% decline of planting areas and the weather disturbance. Based on current arrivals data, and historical cotton production and arriving speed, and the factors that the picking time may be delayed, 2021/22 Indian cotton production is likely to decline by 8.1% compared with last season.
According to AGM, by Nov 30, 2021, the arrivals of seed cotton in India totaled 1.076 million tons, up 50.7% from the corresponding period of last season, but down 14.7% from the six-year average. Viewed from the daily arrivals, the data has shown weakness.
Naseem Usman also drew the attention towards an analysis on domestic front, which said although both cotton output and per acre productivity are showing signs of recovery, latest fortnightly arrivals position further strengthens the early peaking theory. Historically, no more than one-third of seasonal cotton output is picked and sold to ginneries by September end. This trend has shown early peak during the ongoing season, with nearly half of total seasonal output received by September end.
Analysis claim that the cotton arrival forecast of seasonal output, which was earlier revised upwards due to initial performance, may now once again be due for a downward revision. PCGA data indicates that arrivals in Sindh are now as good as over, and may in fact be reflecting cross-border flows from the Northern Province.
Meanwhile, even if flows in Punjab magically maintain at current level during December – of which there is little likelihood – that will only drag nationwide arrivals up to 7.7 million bales, barely close to the initial projection of 8.4 million bales by Pakistan Central Cotton Committee, and a far cry from second forecast of 9.4 million bales revised as recently as in mid-October, Naseem Usman concluded.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021