How’s 7.5 million bales? It is still the fifth largest cotton output in the world, and five percent of world production. But it has been achieved at national average yield of 588 kg per hectares, which doesn’t even feature among top 30 countries (by productivity) – and is 27.5 percent less than world average and this in a season which was slated to mark the revival of cotton crop in the country. So much for rebirths!
But is it not a step in the right direction? At 588 kg per ha, this is the highest national average yield achieved in the past four seasons. But lest it be forgotten, between FY05 – FY15, nationwide yield had averaged at cotton 740 kg per ha, higher by a quarter. Back then, cropped area had also peaked at 3.2 million hectares, which has fallen by 40 percent since. Logic would dictate that as farmers shift to more profitable options, only the most efficient growers would stick with growing cotton, raising its average productivity. Instead, the reverse seems to have taken place: as cultivated area fell to its lowest in four decades, yields are still searching for bottom; clocking in levels last witnessed before the commercialization of Bt. seeds.
Yet, all hope is not lost. If Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association’s arrivals data is used as proxy, farmers in Sindh have managed to achieve yield close to 1,037 kg per ha. If correct, this would not only be double the average yield witnessed during the same season in Punjab, but is more than average per acre productivity in USA, world’s third largest producer of cotton! Mind you, cotton yield in Sindh has always been higher compared to the Northern Province, but the gap had begun to close in recent years. Between FY05 – FY15, crop yield in Sindh was only 1.5 times that in Punjab, propelled by mass adoption of Bt. cotton across the country.
In turn, cotton yield’s great leap forward in Punjab province was largely responsible for raising national output from an average of 9 million bales during the 1990s, to 14.5 million bales by FY05. From 1995 to 2005, average crop yield in the province grew by over half. The explanation was rather straightforward: Punjab had a lot more acres to offer for cotton cultivation, and higher yielding seeds mixed with more cultivable land offered the perfect recipe.
Fast forward a decade and a half and things could not look more different. Not only has Punjab lost over half of its cotton area, the surviving cotton acres in the province are a drag on national average productivity. As provincial (tongue-in-cheek) as this statement may appear, it is hard not to miss the diversion in trends between the two provinces. The 2021-22 crop season was arguably blessed with the most cotton-friendly weather in more than a decade, yet the dismal crop performance in the northern province only raises questions over the continued suitability of the crop in that region.
Meanwhile, it is not just Sindh where cotton yield has outperformed the traditional cotton belt of Punjab. Pakistan Central Cotton Committee estimates average yield of 1,044 kg per ha for cotton in Balochistan during the just concluded season. Granted, that the crop was cultivated at puny acreage of just 70,000 hectares, it is hard not to wonder if – through concerted efforts - the area can be expanded in the province in upcoming seasons. Here, it is important to highlight that the astronomical yield achieved in the non-irrigated ‘barren’ lands of Balochistan is an outcome of entry by some of the largest textile players in the country, incentivizing cultivation of organic cotton to fulfil demand from the more environmentally conscious buyers in the West. All made possible with little to no intervention by administration. Isn’t it just bewildering what market dynamics can help achieved when farmers are left to their own devices, free to grow crops of their own choosing?
Given the chemical-dependent farming in irrigated plains of Punjab and Sindh – an outcome of extreme intensive cropping practices followed over several decades - adoption of organic cotton may not be immediately possible outside of virgin lands of Balochistan. But with the right incentives, it may still not be too late for cotton in Pakistan.