SINGAPORE: US oil may fall to $76.63, as it has pierced below a support at $78.54 per barrel.

The bearish divergence on the hourly MACD worked effectively around a resistance at $79.99. The correction triggered by the resistance seems to be extending towards the $76.63.

Once oil drops to this level, a reversal of the uptrend from $62.43 could be confirmed. The corrective-wave structure the uptrend suggests a return of the price to $62.43 in due course.

A break above $79.45 could lead to a gain into $79.99-$81.12 range. On the daily chart, the correction from $85.41 followed the completion of a five-wave cycle from the 2020 low of negative $40.32.

Three big waves may make up the correction. The current wave B is ending, which is expected to be reversed by a downward wave C.

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