MUMBAI: India is likely to produce 31.45 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22 marketing year, nearly 3.1% more than the previous estimate, as output is set to jump in the key western state of Maharashtra, a leading trade body said on Monday.

India is the world's second-biggest sugar producer and the higher output could weigh on global prices.

Maharashtra's sugar output is likely to rise by 10% from a year ago to a record 11.7 million tonnes in the current marketing year that ends on Sept. 30, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.

Sugar mills could divert a record 3.4 million tonnes of sugar for ethanol production, the ISMA said.

Global sugar supply deficit seen rising as China production falls

The country could export 6 million tonnes of the sweetener in the current year, down from last year's 7.2 million tonnes as New Delhi has discontinued its sugar exports subsidy this year, the trade body said.