Since at least 1970s, Pakistani farmers have grown wheat over 80 percent of available cultivated area in the country. Yet, a supply shortfall has become a recurrent event, with fears of another shortfall raised by farm representatives for the upcoming marketing year (2022 – 23). Clearly, Pakistan no longer has the luxury to raise acreage under wheat to increase output. But is there room to grow land productivity?

According to USDA, Pakistan’s national average yield is only 15 percent lower than that of several top-10 global producers such as India, USA, and Canada. In fact, Pakistan’s average yield is five percent higher than that achieved by other major producers such as Russia and Australia. Together, these 5 nations account for nearly 40 percent of global wheat output. Considering the crop productivity of world’s top wheat producers, are Pakistani farmers faring so poorly in comparison?

At 3.5 tons per hectare, world average yield is only 20 percent higher than Pakistan’s: 2.9 tons per ha. But these comparisons mask one subtle difference: 90 percent of wheat cultivated in Pakistan is on irrigated land, compared to less than one-third for rest of the world!

Zoom in, and the differences become even more glaring at regional level. More than 98 percent of wheat cultivated in Sindh is over irrigated land, which helps account for the (relatively) higher productivity – over 3.5 T/Ha - achieved in the province. In contrast, yields in barani/non-irrigated lands in Balochistan and KP max out at 1.5 T/Ha. In Punjab, yield achieve in irrigated area is more than double that in barani regions: 3.0 T/Ha compared to 1.4 T/Ha.

Pakistan’s comparative advantage thanks to world’s fourth largest irrigated land area is pretty obvious, but also one that has not been put to good use. Consider that progressive farmers in the country manage to achieve yield as high as 5 T/Ha for wheat crop. Yet, average yield across the country has never managed to exceed the 4 T/Ha barriers (not even at district levels!).

Moreover, the rate of improvement in average yield has slowed down in recent decades. Between 1990 to 2000s (decade-average), average yield improved by over 2 percent in Punjab. By late 2010s, growth momentum in the province slowed down to less than 1 percent (10yr period average 2000-10 and 2011-20). Consider that while Sahiwal division remains the leader in crop productivity in the province, it failed to record any significant yield improvement over the last decade whatsoever.

According to an earlier analysis by BR Research, Pakistan will need to improve its crop productivity by 3 percent every year till 2030, if it is to achieve self sufficiency in meeting wheat demand of its growing population (for more, read: “Pakistan’s upcoming food security challenge” published on 19 February, 2021). That can only happen if productivity is raised in the already available irrigated farm areas of Punjab and Sindh, whose water footprint is several times greater than that in other countries across the world, yet achieve productivity levels that are far mediocre.