Pakistani premiers have hardly ever completed their full five years in office, let alone get re-elected. Over the past two decades, the shelf life of leading Prime Ministers (Shaukat Aziz, Yousaf Raza Gilani and Nawaz Sharif) averaged 45 months (out of 60), which equates to three-quarters of allowed constitutional term. About to finish his 42nd month in the hot seat, Imran Khan is fast approaching the arithmetic mean.
In the current political climate, where the opposition parties are now increasingly trying to coalesce around a no-confidence motion against PM Khan, hitting the sweet sixty spot is a scenario that may appear too distant in the future. Many political pundits are looking at the steady drip, drip, drip of negative developments over the past six months as a confirmation that winds of change are blowing now.
There is, however, reasonable cause to doubt that political change is in the offing. Considering how prime ministerial dismissals have often been hyped up to suit vested interests (only to fall flat most of the times), let’s paraphrase Mark Twain and submit that rumors of political deaths in Pakistan are grossly exaggerated. Besides, system has preference for status quo, no matter how irksome, over political chaos.
As things stand, the PM must feel more confident than he did a month ago. The civil-military may not be on the same page, but the public can now see them in the same frame on TV. The IMF program has been brought on track following months of painful decisions and difficult legislations, helping ease macroeconomic concerns. After his China visit, Khan is planning another high-profile tour to Russia.
If everything is hunky-dory, what, then, is one to make of the PM’s sudden decision earlier this week to organize a “mass contact campaign” and address the public later this month? The reported objective of these political rallies – which are to be first held in Mandi Bahauddin, Multan and Rahim Yar Khan in Punjab and Tharparkar in Sindh – is to inform the public about the PTI’s “mega initiatives” in government.
Recent political history also suggests that ruling politicians tend to summon their base only when they feel their survival really threatened. Opinion polls point towards mass discontent over rising fuel and food prices, fueling anti-incumbency sentiments. Therefore, it would be interesting to see how the public responds to Khan’s mega-schemes and anti-corruption slogans. In the end, the public is the best judge.