Russian rouble rebounds from record low, stocks set for worst week ever

25 Feb, 2022

The Russian rouble bounced from a record low on Friday, but eyed its worst week in two years and stocks in the region were set for record weekly declines after Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pleaded with the international community to do more to help, as missiles pounded Ukraine's capital city Kyiv, saying sanctions announced so far were not enough.

Western countries including the United States and the European Union unveiled financial sanctions on Moscow billed as far stronger than earlier measures, including blacklisting its banks and banning technology imports.

But they stopped short of forcing Russia out of the SWIFT system for international bank payments.

The rouble rose 2.7% against the dollar, as the central bank announced FX interventions for the first time since 2014 on Thursday. Still, the currency is set for a weekly decline of nearly 6%, its worst week since March 2020.

"Russian companies and the Russian government can no longer obtain financing on Western capital markets. What looks like a harsh measure may only be symbolic," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank.

Leuchtmann added Russia's economy is state-led which is more dependent on foreign capital, but warned of substantial damage if Russian banks were to be disconnected from the SWIFT system.

Russian stocks also cratered, with the dollar-denominated RTS index tumbling over 32% for the week and the rouble-denominated MOEX index down about 28% for the week. Both indexes tracked for their worst weekly declines in history.

More Russian central bank action is awaited to address high inflation. An unplanned interest rate hike remained on the table, as it did in late 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Russian sovereign dollar bonds extended gains after Thursday's selloff, according to Tradeweb.

J.P.Morgan downgraded its view on emerging market currencies in Europe, Middle East and Africa regions to "underweight" from "market weight" on global market ramifications from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Most currencies in Latin America edged higher after Thursday's steep selloff, with an easing dollar also contributing to gains.

Chile's peso added 1.3% to lead gains in the region, while Mexico's peso rose 0.7%. The MSCI's Latam currencies index rose 0.4% after clocking its worst day since September 2020 the previous session.

Brazil will support a resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine at a UN Security Council meeting on Friday, two sources close to the talks told Reuters. The Brazilian real shed 0.5%.

Separately, final gross domestic product (GDP) data showed Mexico's economy posted no growth in the fourth quarter from the previous three-month period in seasonally adjusted terms.

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