SAO PAULO: Brazil’s coffee exports are expected to reach 39.25 million 60-kg bags in 2022/23, up 3% from the previous cycle as the country enters the “on-year” in arabica’s biannual production cycle, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Wednesday.

That would represent a recovery from 2021/22 when shipments fell 18% from a year earlier after Brazil’s crop was hit by drought and frosts, the consultancy said.

Safras expects the coffee crop in Brazil - the world’s No. 1 producer and exporter - to total 61.1 million bags in 2022/23, up 8% year on year but still 12% below the record seen in 2019/20. The season lasts from July to June.

“We see limited supply growth in Brazil, which would not allow a large global surplus. It also tends to keep price corrections in a limited range,” Safras analyst Gil Barabach said.

Brazil’s ending stocks are seen at 2.93 million in 2022/23, up 9% from the previous season.