LONDON: Near misses can make systems safer and more reliable if they reveal previously hidden weaknesses and operators and regulators draw the right lessons from a narrowly avoided disaster.

But they can also breed complacency if operators and regulators conclude there is no need to worry and assume their luck will continue to hold in future (“Normal accidents”, Perrow, 1984).

Global energy systems avoided a severe crisis during the winter of 2021/22, but mostly because temperatures were far warmer than normal across most of the northern hemisphere, reducing heating demand.

During the “long winter” from October through March, which includes almost all the hemisphere’s heating demand, temperatures were 1.64°C above the long-term average for the 20th century.

The long winter was the third-warmest on record, helping limit consumption of gas, coal and electricity across the major consuming centres of Asia, Europe and North America.

Next winter is likely to be colder, assuming some degree of mean-reversion, implying more heating demand and higher consumption of gas, coal and electricity in one or more of the three major regions.

But all three regions are emerging from this winter with gas coal and oil inventories below the seasonal average, leaving them vulnerable to any disruption in supply or higher than anticipated consumption.

Policymakers in Europe and North America are determined to impose tough sanctions to punish Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which will likely reduce production of gas, coal and oil before the end of the year.

All three major regions are likely to enter next winter facing higher energy consumption, lower production, and limited inventories, increasing the risk of physical energy shortages and/or extremely high prices.