NEW YORK: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised its projection for the global 2021/22 sugar supply balance from a deficit of 1.92 million tonnes in February to a surplus of 237,000 tonnes, according to its quarterly report released on Friday.

ISO increased its view for global sugar production by 3.51 million tonnes since its last report in February, projecting now a total output of 174.02 million tonnes.

It also increased its estimate for consumption, but by a smaller amount of 1.34 million tonnes to 173.78 million tonnes. The organization expects an even larger surplus for the new crop year (2022/23, October-September) at 2.77 million tonnes with production seen rising to 177.37 million tonnes and consumption expected at 174.6 million tonnes.

“From a fundamental perspective the current sugar market situation has shifted further towards bearish,” the ISO said in the report. Asian countries such as India and Thailand are having two years of good production while Brazil is also starting a larger crop in 2022. “Export availability from Brazil, especially for raw sugar, is expected to see the market well-supplied in the remainder of 2021/22,” the organization said.

Global ethanol production in 2022 is projected to grow by 5.1 billion liters (1.4 billion gallons) from 2021 to reach 110.3 billion liters. Ethanol consumption is seen jumping 4.5 billion liters to 106.3 billion liters.

ISO sees increased ethanol production and consumption in the United States, Brazil and India in 2022.