KARACHI: Total petroleum products sales in the country declined by 11 percent on month-on-month basis to 1.9 million tons in June 2022 which is mainly driven by 14 percent dipped in MOGAS and HSD sales.

This was due to sharp increase in MOGAS and HSD prices by 31 percent and 51 percent in June 2022, respectively. This led to reduced demand of petroleum products and rise in usage of public transport/car pooling, analysts said.

Motor Gasoline (MOGAS) and High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales were down 12 percent and 16 percent on MoM basis to 702,000 tons and 713,000 tons, respectively. Excluding Furnace Oil (FO), overall petroleum sales volume stood at 1.48 million tons in June-22, down 13 percent on MoM and 7.0 percent on YoY.

In FY22, Pakistan’s oil sales clocked in at 22.6 million tons, up 16 percent on YoY, which was much better than the last 10-year growth rate.

This was mainly led by higher than expected growth in FO sales which reached 4 million tons (highest since FY18) due to high demand in power plants amidst non-availability of RLNG along with low hydel generation, Saad Ziker at Toplines Securities said.

Excluding FO, oil sales were up 13 percent on YoY in FY22 due to uptick in MOGAS and HSD sales. MOGAS and HSD volumes witnessed jump of 9.0 percent on YoY and 15 percent on YoY to 8.9 million tons each in FY22. This was driven by strong economic growth including growth in Agriculture sector and increase in auto sales, he said.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) sales outperformed the sector growing by 29 percent whereas Attock Petroleum (APL) sales improved by 22 percent in FY22. Shell Pakistan (SHEL) and Hascol Petroleum (HASCOL) underperformed the market during FY22.

“Moving forward, we expect oil sales to decline by around 15 percent on YoY in FY23F tons due to expected decline in auto sales in FY23, low growth estimated in agriculture sector (2.5 percent for FY23F versus 4.4 percent in FY22) and sharp increase in petrol/diesel prices,” Saad Ziker said.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022