ISLAMABAD: With campaigning ended at midnight Friday, the 10-party Hamza Shahbaz-led alliance is pitted against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its coalition partner, the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid (PML-Q), in the 20 by-elections in Punjab on Sunday (tomorrow).

While the fall of the Imran Khan’s government in the centre and Punjab is being widely seen as indicative of a fall from the establishment’s grace implying thereby that the usual practice of electables being compelled to change loyalties in favour of one party over another are firmly in the Hamza camp, still senior PTI leaders have indicated that their candidates are receiving calls from unknown numbers and Imran Khan, in his not too cryptic attack, has named Mister X and Y as spearheading a charge to ensure PTI’s defeat.

PTI Vice Chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi told Business Recorder that “each and every candidate of ours is receiving phone calls — and you know from where, our candidates are being forced to withdraw from the electoral battle. But salute to them, they are steadfast and standing with Imran Khan like a rock.”

There has been no institutional response to this charge. To charges of using the government machinery to intimidate PTI candidates and supporters, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah, also the head the PML-N Punjab chapter, while talking to Business Recorder, said, “Being an interior minister, I can say with full responsibility that not even a single person from PTI has been contacted, let alone threatened by anyone.

These are just wild allegations. If there is any shred of truth in these reports backed by proper evidence, I will be responsible.

They (PTI) have seen that their political demise is the writing on the wall, so they are cribbing and crying.

The PTI should focus on constituency politics instead of hurling empty allegations.“ Three narratives are getting traction based on political sympathies and surveys that are severely limited in scope.

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First, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) supporters are unwilling to extend support to 19 out of the 20 by-election candidates (except Aleem Khan who has decided not to stand for elections) because, as recent PTI members, they had been actively engaged in undermining the PML-N candidates/ workers/ supporters.

The second narrative is that all 19 are electables and they may change party loyalties based on whichever party gets to form a government in the centre and/ or province.

They may not get PML-N’s support but the jury is out as to whether they would need it to win the seat again especially as the opposing PTI candidates are little known.

And finally, while all agree that Imran Khan’s jalsas are heavily attended, yet few reckon this attendance would translate into actual votes because critics believe PTI lacks the organizational capacity to engage in constituency politics.

The recent resignations from PML-N provincial ministers, believed to be of short-term duration only, were to ensure that they can play their due role in constituency politics. This last narrative indicates the PML-N leadership’s tacit acknowledgement that Maryam Nawaz’s campaign may be effective in getting media coverage but not enough to win the elections.

Rana Sanaullah supported this narrative: “We have worked very hard on constituency politics. Our rank and file— all the way from a worker to top leaders— are in the constituencies with the people. PTI, on the other hand, is waiting for a miracle to happen.

It is banking on Imran Khan’s so-called popularity instead of reaching out to masses.“ PTI’s Qureshi disagreed and stated that his party is fully focused on constituency politics, “We know constituency politics better than anyone else. All our workers and leaders are intensely engaged in by-elections preparations. But we cannot resort to ugly methods of pre-poll rigging to win the elections like they do,” he said.

In contrast to the PML-N, Imran Khan remains the major, if not the only trump card, in the by-elections for the PTI and his narrative has remained remarkably consistent since he left the office of the prime minister: Americans engineered a regime change, the fight between good and evil disallows neutrality, the turncoats and their families must not only be ostracised from society but also from the electoral process and the elections are a fight for real freedom.

Imran Khan’s speeches are full of invective against all institutions – including the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), the “neutrals” a thinly veiled yet abundantly obvious reference to the security establishment, the court decisions that have gone against him, and the use of government machinery by the PML-N to intimidate opposition leaders and supporters.

Out of 20 seats, PML-N has awarded tickets to PTI dissidents on 19 seats. Aleem Khan is the only PTI dissident not contesting the by-elections. Instead, Rana Ahsan Sharafat, a diehard PML-N activist, is contesting by-election on Khan’s seat PP-158 against PTI’s Mian Akram Usman in Lahore.

The by-polls are taking place on the delimitation of constituencies that was done on the basis of population census 2017.

The stakes are simply too high for both party to retreat, and they are putting in all their efforts, resources and energy to win the electoral battle. An anecdotal survey carried out by BR revealed serious concerns within the administration of the possibility of fatalities from the two opposing parties though all stated that they will neither initiate nor support any violence on Election Day.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022