PARIS: Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for this year’s European Union sunflower seed crop to 10.35 million tonnes from 10.87 million forecast a month ago, the consultancy said, citing the impact of drought.

The reduced projection would be level with last year’s production, it said in an oilseed report. Strategie Grains had previously projected that the sunflower seed crop would surpass last year’s record volume, helped by a sharp increase in planting this year. However, drought conditions exacerbated by heatwaves were hurting yield prospects for sunflower as well as the EU’s smaller soybean crop, it said. “Sunseed and soybean crops have been plagued by water stress, a matter of particular concern in Hungary, Italy and Romania,” Strategie Grains said.

“In addition, early results from sunseed harvesting operations in Spain are very poor.” For soybeans, the consultancy lowered its 2022 EU production forecast to 2.78 million tonnes from 2.98 million, though that would be 2.9% above last year’s level. Despite the reduced harvest outlook, EU sunflower seed supply is expected to be balanced in the 2022/23 season, partly reflecting strong imports from Ukraine, it said. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted Ukrainian sunflower seed crushing for vegetable oil exports, leading to a shift towards exporting seed, Strategie Grains said. However, the sunflower seed supply situation could evolve in the coming weeks depending on weather conditions in Europe and the extent to which Ukrainian exports are boosted by resumption of sea shipments under a deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, the consultancy added. For rapeseed, the EU’s main oilseed crop, Strategie Grains raised its estimate of this year’s harvest to 18.47 million tonnes from 18.33 million previously, now 8.8% above last year’s level.

However, EU supply in 2022/23 is expected to remain near the tight levels of 2021/22 owing to high demand because of attractive margins for rapessed crushing, Strategie Grains said.