The high-flying Australian and New Zealand dollars may pull back modestly in the coming months on falling commodity prices and a slowdown in China, but should stay remarkably well supported overall, a Reuters poll showed. Median forecasts from around 50 analysts showed the Aussie holding between $1.0100 and $1.0200 from one out to 12 months, little changed for its current level.
On Thursday, it was at $1.0191, having been as low as $0.9581 in June and as high as $1.0615 in August. As usual the range of forecasts was wide, with a low of 85 cents seen for six months and a high of $1.0800. A survey of around 47 analysts showed the New Zealand dollar was also expected to gently pull back to $0.7900 in the next six months, from $0.7956 where it currently stands.
Oddly, the Aussie and the New Zealand dollar are expected to hold their ground despite tumbling export prices and economic concerns in Europe, the United States and increasingly China. What's more, there has been growing speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia is prepared to ease in October after it left the cash rate steady at 3.5 percent at its September policy meeting on Tuesday. Investors are attracted to Australia and New Zealand's relatively high yields compared with the near-zero rates of most developed nations. New Zealand's cash rate sits at 2.5 percent.