Just under one percent weight in national CPI, with a contribution of over one-fourth in inflation, such is the power of piyaz timatar. Pakistanis love their saalan, and no floods or climate change can part us from our romance for gravy.

To be fair, the perishable sub-index in national CPI has been climbing at mad speed since long before the floods hit. Perishable index for N-CPI has in fact almost doubled since the beginning of calendar year, after perishable prices witnessed their last seasonal dip in January 2022. Regular readers will recall that perishables prices dip seasonally post-November every year, with sub-index level in January lower by at least 20 percent on average (compared to two months prior).

The only difference? There is very little hope that the seasonal dip will materialize this year. The monsoon floods of Jul-Aug may have devastated as much as half of national tomato and onion crops. Past statistics show that Sindh and Balochistan together account for two-thirds and 60 percent of Pakistan’s onion and tomato production, respectively.

Onion crop in Balochistan, which contributes over one-third of national onion output, is ready for harvest by Oct/Nov. This significantly contributes to the seasonal crash in onion prices witnessed almost every other year by Dec/Jan. This time, the flash flooding in central Balochistan washed away much of the standing crop (onion bulbs). Of course, while Baloch farmers are the foremost victims of this calamity, consumers are also at the receiving end of the ensued suffering.

Meanwhile in Sindh, onion crop is harvested much later. However, the floods hit the province at the peak of nursery sowing and transplanting stage. The standing water in flat lands of the southern province effectively ensured that the crop was in no position to be salvaged. Little surprise then that national average onion prices, which stood at under Rs 50 per kg in October 2021, have now shot up to Rs 140 per kg across the country.

Tomato prices aren’t behaving too differently either. Just two years ago, Sindh and Balochistan farmers were reported to have destroyed their ready-to-harvest tomato crop just to stem the tide of falling prices. This year, tomato prices have shot up nearly 3 times and stayed there, a rare occurrence previously witnessed for a limited window around Eid-ul-Adha only.

Of course, this too shall pass. Already, import of onions and tomatoes from neighboring Iran and elsewhere has picked up steam. And as limited harvest from Punjab begins to trickle in, month-on-month perishable prices may witness some slowdown. At the very least, the rate of change shall pause rising exponentially.

But climate change is not going anywhere. In coming years, traditional farmers may grow weary of planting these high value (but also high risk!) vegetables, as they are disproportionately vulnerable to damage from freak weather events. Given Pakistan’s high population and preference for tomato and onion-based curry in local cuisine, local demand won’t adapt in the short term either.

As bad as prices may appear right now, the longer-term risks to vegetable farming pose a far greater challenge to food price stability in the country. Brace yourselves!