Since the Afghan Taliban’s return to Kabul in August 2021, a marked increase in terrorism incidents, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, has been observed, targeting mainly the security forces. Since then, security experts have been raising alarm about there turn of urban terrorism. In the aftermath of TTP’s announcement last week to end ‘ceasefire’ with the government, a worsening security situation is now officially part of the list of Pakistan’s economic, political and climate-related problems.

The growing threat is adding to Pakistan’s negative security perception overseas. As per the Dartmouth College’s ‘Early Warning Project’ Report released last month, among 162 countries, Pakistan has the highest statistical risk (16% chance) of experiencing a non-state mass killing in 2023. (‘Mass killing’ is defined in the report as armed groups causing death of at least 1,000 civilians over a one-year period or less). This likelihood seems low, but it is higher than Yemen’s and more than twice that of Afghanistan’s.

Looking at other global security indices – such as Global Terrorism Index and Global Peace Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace – Pakistan has made small, consistent gains in its peace environment since 2014-15. Back in 2014, then government had launched a full-scale military operation – Zarb-e-Azb – in the erstwhile FATA region to drive out TTP militants and their allies. Since 2017, Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad has been ongoing to disband terrorism networks across Pakistan, including in urban areas.

Does the on-again, off-again nature of ‘peace talks’ with TTP over the past 12 months suggest that dialogue can be revived again? If so, will it be easy to sustain? On the government’s side, public support to engage TTP needs to be built, considering TTP’s murderous history and its extreme demands. And on the militant’s side, terrorist attacks must be ceased in order for talks to progress. A lot also depends on how the Kabul regime, which reportedly played its role in brokering peace talks, holds TTP to account.

The landscape in 2023 looks materially different from 2007, 2014 or 2017. While large-scale urban terrorism incidents are rare (thankfully!), the militant threat is now reportedly present in all regions.Afghanistan-based separatists have reportedly targeted Chinese interests in Pakistan, under an ostensibly-friendly government in Kabul.As the public seems dangerously divided on partisan lines, the federal government seems to have limited popularity and appetite to take tough decisions on security.

And then there is the weakening economy, which cannot afford further deterioration in the country’s risk profile. As 2023 is also the year of general elections and political transition, the danger is that political parties may ignore security-related challenges, thus delaying the consensus needed to tackle them. It is, therefore, critical that all stakeholders come together and get an early grip on the terrorism problem, before things get out of control and further undermine the country’s security and economic stability.