Much has been made of the exodus of Pakistan’s “talent” – the pace of which is believed to have increased manifolds this year. The brain drain, as the media headlines like to call it, led to 0.76 million workers registering abroad for employment purposes in the first eleven months of 2022. It is nearly four times as much as 2020 and thrice as much as last year.
Under ordinary circumstances – a three and four times change in almost anything deserved to be taken note of. Only that 2020 and 2021 were largely mired by the pandemic, and especially when an indicator such as employment abroad is in question – it becomes even more significant. Global economic meltdown and restriction to no travel are good enough reasons for the last two years to be skipped for any meaningful trend analysis.
In that context, the 2022 number (annualized on 11 months available data) is most likely to stay short of highest recorded figures in 2015. That said, it is still a considerable increase from 2017-2019 (sustained period of low oil prices), as pent-up demand for human resource may well be in play. Considering that the bulk of the manpower goes to oil-rich GCC countries, significantly higher oil prices in 2022 could also have had a say.
A closer look at numbers, however, shows some decade-old patterns have started to be challenged, in terms of occupation categories and employment destinations. The top five employment categories for 2022 are in line with the 10-year average, with ranks unchanged.
The unskilled laborer category at 43 percent has the highest share. This is followed by drivers, who are in high demand in 2022 – doubling the 10-year average share from 14 to 28 percent – growing 2.5 times.
The biggest growth, outside of drivers, is witnessed in some of the qualified and high skilled categories. Managers with 2 percent share showed growth of 213 percent over previous 10-year average, whereas accountants and supervisors grew over 70 percent each. Manpower export of doctors, managers, accountants and supervisor in 2022 is the highest ever yearly number - and in most cases, by quite a distance. Of course, one year is not a trend, especially coming at the back of two years of pandemic, things have to be viewed in context.
The” agriculturist” category is a mystery the share of which has gone down from a historic 3 percent (the highest share between 2011-2019) to a paltry 0.3 percent in 2022. At the peak, 31,000 agriculturists had moved abroad for work – a number that is down to under 3,000 in 2022. One wonders what qualifies as an agriculturist, especially considering the bulk of export is to GCC countries – and what explains such a drastic drop.
In terms of countries, GCC takes up 96 percent share – led by Saudi Arabia at 62 percent for 2022 and 47 percent between 2011-19. The Emirates continues to be the second preferred destination, but the share has dropped to just 16 percent in 2022 versus 40 percent for 2011-19 period. Qatar’s share has understandably shot up to 7 percent in 2022, versus an average less than 2 percent share from 2011-19. The numbers are likely to drop significantly as the ongoing World Cup in Qatar draws to a close.
A recent survey by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) titled “Desire to Live in Pakistan: Stay or Leave?” authored by Dr. Durr-e-Nayab, reveals 37 percent would want out if given the opportunity. One can’t say if that number has gone up from earlier, in absence of comparable data. A similar survey by Gallup conducted earlier in May 2022 puts the number of people willing to leave Pakistan at 26 percent, if offered employment abroad.
Of course, these are two different surveys with different methodologies and sampling size – and therefore, cannot be used to infer time-series analysis. The anecdote does strongly suggest the desire may well be on the rise, for a variety of reasons ranging from economic, political, and even social chaos the country has found itself in the recent past. Remember, the desire may not always reflect in the numbers, which is largely a factor of available opportunities.