ISLAMABAD: The Consumer Price Index-based inflation increased to 27.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 24.5 per cent in the previous month and 13 per cent in January 2022, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The CPI in the first seven months (July-January) of the current fiscal year on average remained at 25.40 per cent compared to 10.26 per cent during the same period of the last fiscal year.

On a month-on-month basis, CPI increased to 2.9per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 0.5 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.4 per cent in January 2022. The CPI inflation urban, increased to 24.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 21.6 per cent in the previous month and 13 per cent in January 2022. On a month-on-month basis, it increased to 2.4 per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 0.3 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.1 per cent in January 2022.

The CPI inflation rural, increased to 32.3 per cent on a year-on-year basis in Jan 2023 as compared to an increase of 28.8 per cent in the previous month and 12.9 per cent in January 2022. On month-on-month basis, it increased to 3.6 per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 0.7 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.9 per cent in January 2022.

Pakistan's headline inflation clocks in at 24.5% in December

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY increased to 30.5per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 27.8per cent a month earlier and 20.9per cent in January 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 1.3per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 0.2 per cent a month earlier and a decrease of 0.8 per cent in January 2022.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on YoY basis increased to 28.5 per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 27.1 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 24 per cent in January 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 1.8per cent in January 2023 as compared to a decrease of 0.7 a month earlier and an increase of 0.6 per cent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., January 2022.

Measured by non-food non-energy urban increased to 15.4 per cent on YoY basis in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 14.7 per cent in the previous month and 8.2 per cent in January 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 1.4 per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.2 per cent in previous month, and an increase of 0.8 per cent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., January 2022.

Measured by non-food non-energy rural increased to 19.4per cent on YoY basis in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 19 per cent in the previous month and nine percent in January 2022. On MoM basis, it remained the same, i.e., 1.5per cent in January 2023 as compared to the previous month, and an increase of 1.2 per cent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., January 2022.

Measured by 20 per cent weighted trimmed mean urban increased to 20.9 per cent on YoY basis in January 2023 as compared to 19.4 per cent in the previous month and 10.6 per cent in January 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 1.5 per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 0.8 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5 per cent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., January 2022.

Measured by 20 per cent weighted trimmed mean rural increased to 27.8 per cent on YoY basis in January 2023 as compared to 26.4 per cent in the previous month and by 10.9 per cent in January 2022. On MoM basis, it increased to 2.1 per cent in January 2023 as compared to an increase of 1.5 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 1.1 per cent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., January 2022.

The National CPI for January 2023 is increased to 2.88 per cent over December 2022 and increased to 27.55 per cent over the corresponding month of the last year, i.e., January 2022.

The MoM top few commodities which varied from the previous month and contributed to Urban CPI among food which increased include chicken (24.62 per cent), wheat (16.47 per cent), rice (14.16 per cent), wheat flour (13.23 per cent), wheat products (11.7 per cent), onions (9.74 per cent), bakery and confectionary (5.43 per cent), fresh fruits (5.19 per cent), eggs (4.36 per cent), moong (4.15 per cent), masoor (3.97 per cent), dry fruits (3.75 per cent), pulse gram (2.96 per cent), gram whole (2.94 per cent), beans (2.88 per cent), maash (2.49 per cent), milk fresh (2.03 per cent), fish (2 per cent) and mustard oil (1.09 per cent) and decreased in tomatoes (39.01 per cent), potatoes (26.21 per cent), vegetable ghee (1.21 per cent), sugar (0.87 per cent), cooking oil (0.36 per cent), fresh vegetables (0.33 per cent), and gur (0.09 per cent).

Among non-food which increased include solid fuel (3.23 per cent), liquefied hydrocarbons (2.81 per cent), marriage hall charges (2.71 per cent), house rent (1.66 per cent), cleaning and laundering (1.62 per cent), furniture and furnishing (1.42 per cent), electricity charges (0.86 per cent), construction input items (0.78 per cent), household equipment (0.61 per cent), construction wage rates (0.61 per cent) and motor vehicle accessories (0.52 per cent) and decreased in transport services (1.5 per cent) and motor fuel (0.6 per cent).

The YoY top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year among food items which increased include onions (468.54 per cent), chicken (83.27 per cent), wheat (78.39 per cent), rice (65.24 per cent), wheat flour (61.25 per cent), gram whole (50.47 per cent), pulse moong (46 per cent), pulse gram(44.53 per cent), besan (43.25 per cent), mustard oil (42.28 per cent), mash (37.1 per cent), fresh fruits(35.33 per cent), cooking oil (31.46 per cent), milk fresh (29.27 per cent), vegetable ghee (28.49 per cent), tomatoes (22.44 per cent), fish (22.28 per cent), pulse masoor (22.07 per cent), meat (20.01 per cent), fresh vegetables (8.43 per cent), potatoes (6.18 per cent) and sugar (0.83 per cent) and decreased in gur (2.72 per cent).

Among non-food items which increased include stationery (47.37 per cent), transport services (29.97 per cent), motor vehicle accessories (29.26 per cent), motor vehicles (28.04 per cent), marriage hall charges (19.93 per cent), household textiles (14.55 per cent), construction wage rates (14.24 per cent), education (10.4 per cent), house rent (5.43 per cent), water supply (4.92 per cent), newspapers (4.21 per cent), electricity charges (0.69 per cent) and communication services (0.52 per cent).

MoM top few commodities which varied from the previous month and contributed to rural CPI in food which increased in chicken (32.95 per cent), wheat (27.9 per cent), wheat flour (13.81 per cent), rice (12.26 per cent), onions (8.75 per cent), moong (7.4 per cent), dry fruits (7.38 per cent), fresh fruits (5.75 per cent), fish (3.64 per cent), fresh vegetables (3.36 per cent), mustard oil (3.23 per cent), gram whole (2.81 per cent), besan (2.67 per cent), pulse gram (2.52 per cent), maash (1.83), eggs (1.65 per cent), masoor (1.41 per cent), cooking oil (1.02 per cent), beverages (0.96 per cent) and meat (0.96 per cent) and decreased in tomatoes (37.83 per cent), potatoes (28.17 per cent), sugar (2.01 per cent) and vegetable ghee (1.02 per cent).

Among non-food items which increased include liquefied hydrocarbons(4.15 per cent), house rent (3.12 per cent), solid fuel (2.92 per cent), construction wage rates (1.98 per cent), household equipment (0.67 per cent), and marriage hall charges(0.57 per cent) and decreased in transport services (0.99 per cent) and motor fuels (0.5 per cent).

YoY top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year, and which increased include onions (530.33 per cent), wheat (100.2 per cent), chicken (88.81 per cent), rice (65.64 per cent), tea (60.33 per cent), gram whole (58.73 per cent), eggs (56.18 per cent), wheat flour (56.14 per cent), besan (54.73 per cent), pulse gram (51.34 per cent), moong (49.89 per cent), tomatoes (45.24 per cent), mustard oil (43.53 per cent), maash (41.2 per cent), fresh fruits (34.72 per cent), cooking oil (34.3 per cent), vegetable ghee (30.67 per cent), milk fresh (30.65 per cent), masoor (29.53 per cent), fish (22.28 per cent), meat (20.08 per cent), fresh vegetables(10.48 per cent), honey(7.86 per cent) and gur(1.08 per cent) and decreased in potatoes (5.05 per cent) and sugar (0.18 per cent).

Among non-food items which increase include motor fuels (47.91 per cent), transport services (44.83 per cent), solid fuel (32.4 per cent), motor vehicles accessories (29.29 per cent) household textiles (20.8 per cent), furniture and furnishing (20.74 per cent), woollen cloth (17.93 per cent), readymade garments (17.7 per cent), doctor clinic fee (17.53 per cent), woollen readymade garments (16.18 per cent), marriage hall charges(16.03 per cent), mechanical services (15.16 per cent), motor vehicles (15.02 per cent), footwear (14.8 per cent), dupatta (13.99 per cent), construction wage rates (13.76 per cent), medical tests (12.57 per cent), education (11.24 per cent) and accommodation services (7.08 per cent).

Top few commodities which varied from previous month and contributed to WPI which increased include poultry (24.63 per cent), fresh fruits (13.89 per cent), wheat (13.73 per cent), millet/ bajra (13.45 per cent), ceramics and sanitary fixture (13.09 per cent), rice (12.3 per cent), chuff cutter (11.85 per cent), wheat flour (11.66 per cent), fibre crops (10.38 per cent), stimulant and spice crops (10.31 per cent), eggs (7.63 per cent), dried fruits and nuts (7.29 per cent), vegetables and fruit juice (7.18 per cent), steel bar and sheets (6.94 per cent), other oil seeds (6.77 per cent), blankets (6.6 per cent), dry fruits (6.34 per cent), cotton seeds (5.91 per cent), sugar crops (5.11 per cent), processed liquid milk (3.59 per cent), vegetables (3.24 per cent), oil cakes (3.23 per cent) and maize (3.07 per cent) and decreased in edible roots/ potatoes (33.4 per cent), furnace oil (11.07 per cent), sugar refined (3.61 per cent), kerosene oil (1.84 per cent), diesel oil (1.17 per cent), bricks, blocks and tiles (0.96 per cent), motor spirit (0.76 per cent), fuel wood in logs (0.42 per cent), vegetable ghee (0.29 per cent) and sorghum/ jowar (0.08 per cent).

YoY top few commodities which varied from the previous year and increased include lighting equipment (381.19 per cent), chuff cutter (117.93 per cent), concrete mixture (98.34 per cent), poultry (91.44 per cent), coal not agglomerated (79.42 per cent), wheat (77.3 per cent), vegetables (69.54 per cent), eggs (67.17 per cent), dried fruits and nuts (64.84 per cent), wheat flour (61.51 per cent), dry fruits (60.12 per cent), diesel oil (55.27 per cent), vegetables and fruit juice (54.66 per cent), rice (54.03 per cent), fresh fruits (52.91 per cent), kerosene oil (50.95 per cent), medicines (49.98 per cent), maize (49.72 per cent), motor spirit (49.32 per cent),coffee and tea (46.51 per cent) and pulses (45.99 per cent) and decreased in fibre crops (2.84 per cent), spices (2.35 per cent), edible roots/potatoes (2.17 per cent) and sugar refined (0.45 per cent).

AFP adds: Inflation has risen to a 48-year high in crisis-hit Pakistan, according to government data released Wednesday, as IMF officials visit for urgent talks on a stalled bailout package.

Food prices rose by a staggering 43 percent in January year-on-year, which analyst Yousuf Nazar based in Britain described as a “killer”.

“The overall rate actually masks or understates the misery of the people, and what is really going on behind these numbers,” he told AFP.

“It also reflects badly on the management — on the managers of the economy.”

In the past week, with the prospect of national bankruptcy looming and no countries willing to offer less painful bailouts, Islamabad has started to bow to pressure to meet IMF demands.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023