PARIS: Consultancy Strategie Grains for a second month in a row raised its forecast of European Union soft wheat production this year, citing good growing conditions so far.

The French firm now expects EU soft wheat output of 129.7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, up from a forecast of 129.3 million in January and an initial outlook of 128.7 million in December, it said in a cereal report.

That would be more than 3% higher than 2022/23 production it estimated at 125.6 million tonnes. Field conditions were becoming dry in France and Spain, though it was too early to reduce yield expectations, Strategie Grains said.

The anticipated rise in harvest production could contribute to a sharp increase in EU wheat supplies next season, it said. Export competition this season could leave the EU with relatively large stocks before the next harvest comes in, the consultancy said.

It cut its forecast of EU soft wheat exports in 2022/23 by 1.7 million tonnes to 30.1 million, though it increased its outlook for 2023/24 exports by 0.4 million tonnes to 30.6 million.

“We anticipate that European grains overall will face fierce competition from Russia and Australia on export markets through the remainder of the campaign, whilst imported Ukrainian wheat and maize continues to arrive in Europe,” Strategie Grains said.

For maize, it trimmed its 2023/24 production outlook to 63.4 million from 63.8 million tonnes, reiterating that yields should recover from last year’s drought-hit levels but that the planted area should stay relatively low.

For barley, it kept its forecast unchanged for the next harvest at 52.3 million tonnes, nearly 2% above 2022/23 production.