Brent oil may bounce to $83.95 per barrel before turning around and falling towards the Feb. 17 low of $81.80. The bounce is driven by a wave 4, which may be limited to $83.95.

This wave is expected to be reversed by a wave 5. The wave 4 could be much stronger than the wave 2, because the former was triggered by a major support of $82.10.

A break below $82.42 could suggest a completion of the wave 4.

The bounce target of $83.95 has to be aborted then. On the daily chart, oil has broken a support of $83.63.

Oil prices little changed, nurse last week’s losses on improved supplies

The break opened the way towards $73.82-$77.56 range. Once the contract falls into this range, there will be little doubt that the downtrend from $125.19 has resumed.

A close above $83.63 on Monday would complicate the picture.