SINGAPORE: Australia’s wheat crop is likely to face risks from dry weather due to El Nino weather pattern in the second half of 2023 after three years of record production, a consultancy said on Wednesday.

“The La Nina pattern continues to ease as Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise,” Christopher Whitwell, managing director of Basis Commodities said at a grains industry conference in Singapore.

“Models indicate a neutral pattern by March-May. There is increased risk of El Nino developing in the mid to late 2023 which is associated with below average rainfall.” Australia’s La Nina wet weather system, which caused record rainfall, is fading, the Bureau of Meteorology said on this week.

With La Nina, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal while waters in the western tropical Pacific are warmer than normal, generating moisture that brings rain to eastern and central Australia.

As of now, there was ample soil moisture in most growing parts of the country for the wheat crop for which planting will start next month.

“We are in pretty good shape. We have had a pretty cool summer,” he said. Australia, blessed by ample rains and higher planting, produced record break wheat crops for three years. Importers in Asia and the Middle East, led by Indonesia, the world’s No. 2 wheat importer, are key buyers of Australian grains.

Global wheat prices are down almost 10% this year after gaining for six consecutive years. In February, wheat has lost more than 7% of its value, falling for five months in a row.