PARIS: The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) has increased its estimate of 2022/23 wheat production in the major exporter to a new record of 39.2 million tonnes, it said in a crop report.

ABARES’ previous estimate of 36.6 million tonnes in December was already a record level. The upward revision brings the agency closer to some market estimates that have pegged the crop at over 40 million tonnes, after heavy rain linked to the La Nina climate pattern boosted yields.

For the 2023/24 season, wheat production was projected to fall to 28.2 million tonnes, on the assumption that less favourable drier conditions will develop, ABARES said. However, that would still represent an above-average level, with stored soil moisture seen benefiting winter crops, particularly in eastern states.

Weather analysts are expecting a shift towards the El Nino pattern in the coming months, which tends to bring dry conditions in Australia. Barley production in 2022/23 was estimated at 14.1 million tonnes, the third-largest volume on record, but ABARES expected it to drop sharply next season, to 9.9 million tonnes.

Canola production in 2022/23 was estimated at a record 8.3 million tonnes, 21% above the previous record of 6.8 million in 2021/22, and was also forecast to fall back due to drier weather in 2023/24 to come in at 5.4 million tonnes.