Most Asian currencies largely subdued ahead of Powell’s testimony

07 Mar, 2023

Most Asian currencies edged lower on Tuesday, led by the Indonesian rupiah, as investors pulled back from risky assets ahead of testimony from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell that could give clues to the size of future interest rate hikes.

The rupiah weakened as much as 0.46% to hit its lowest level since Jan. 12, while China’s yuan and the South Korean won depreciated 0.1%, each.

Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo on Monday expressed his support for an appeal against a controversial court ruling that called for the 2024 presidential and general elections to be delayed.

The Jakarta district court, hearing a procedural complaint by an obscure party, last week ordered the national poll body to halt all election preparations.

Asian equity markets were generally higher but shares in Jakarta dipped as much as 0.6%.

In Thailand, headline consumer prices were 3.79% higher in February than a year earlier, rising less than analysts had forecast mainly due to lower energy and food prices, according to government data.

The Thai baht depreciated as much as 0.49%, while stocks in Bangkok gained 0.96%.

Powell is due to deliver his semi-annual testimony before Congress later in the day. It will be closely watched for clues regarding the extent and duration of the US central bank’s restrictive monetary policy, which is aimed at curbing inflation.

Asian currencies strengthen on weak dollar as Powell’s testimony in focus

“Three more 25 basis-point hikes over the next three meetings have been well-anchored for the Fed’s rate outlook thus far, but investors will be seeking some validation from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to gauge whether this pricing will be sufficient,” Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG said.

Market participants are also keenly awaiting the US February jobs report due on Friday.

In the Philippines, annual inflation eased for the first time in six months in February, owing to lower transport and food prices.

An interest rate hike at the central bank’s March 23 meeting looks almost certain, however, as inflation still remains above its set target of 2% to 4%.

“We continue to expect the central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp (basis point) at the March meeting.

However, there is a risk of a smaller 25bp hike following today’s lower-than-expected inflation print,“ analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

The Philippine peso weakened 0.13%, while stocks in Manila advanced 0.8%.

Across the region, stock indexes largely traded higher. Shares in Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia advanced between 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.

Highlights

** Indonesia’s forex reserves rise to $140.3 bln in February

** Philippine C.bank may opt for 25 bps rate hike at March 23 meeting.

** Markets in India were closed on account of a public holiday.

** China Jan-Feb trade likely contracted again as global economy slowed

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