Readymade food prices, as tracked by the PBS for CPI calculation, soared 45 percent year-on-year in March 2023. While exceptionally high, there is nothing eye popping as general food inflation too raked in 43 percent increase year-on-year. The two have moved in good symmetry for the best part of 18 months. It was not always like that though.

While the food prices singlehandedly carried headline inflation in FY19 and FY20 – readymade food carried on with its own trajectory, as if showing utter disregard to the former. What changed? Rice and chicken went dearer beyond imagination. It hurts more because of the relatively stable prices in the case of rice and a predictable trend with the peaks and troughs hovering in a narrow band for chicken – for well over a decade.

Now readymade food has a considerably high weightage in CPI basket at 5.5 percent. Only house rent and milk have a higher weightage. Of the 10 items tracked by the PBS in the readymade food category, four are based on chicken. Cooked chicken (gravy), chicken pizza, chicken roast and last but not least, chicken biryani; BR Research is not fortunate enough (yet) to have access to item-wise CPI basket weightage, but it is fair to assume that chicken-based items will have a considerable collective say in the readymade food category.

This space has highlighted in great detail the reasons behind poultry and rice price increase on various occasions (See the latest: How GoP ruined affordable protein). For all the uncontrollable, somewhat controllable and mismanagement reasons, affording what could perhaps be termed as the country’s national dish, has become a challenge like never before.(The pulao vs biryani and biryani with potato or without debate is best be left for another day).

A crude estimate based on box standard biryani recipe tells making chicken biryani at home today for 6 people costs Rs900. This is a 45 percent costlier affair than the same period a year ago. Chicken biryani is not used to this. Ten-year average year-on-year increase prior to Covid was 4 percent. That is largely because price increase inrice and chicken, responsible for approximately 60 percent of production cost, stayed in single digits for most part of the decade prior to FY21. Of course, cooking oil, spices, yogurt etc have their say too – but double-digit price increase for these items is not necessarily unheard of.

Readymade food has made it to the top-10 items in CPI basket in terms of weighted contribution for most months of FY23. The purchasing power has been hit like never before, but the hit on chicken (and rice) could potentially threaten Biryani’s position as an everyday food. It once was a novelty dish, best reserved for large gatherings. A lot, if not all, of it could have been avoided by better management in the two years leading up to now. One hopes chicken biryani does not die an unnoticed death.