SINGAPORE: Spot gold looks neutral in a range of $1,988 to $2,018 per ounce, and an escape could suggest a direction.

The current consolidation is presumed to have been driven by a wave b, the second wave of a three-wave cycle from $2,048.71.

This wave is expected to be reversed by a downward wave c.

A break above $2,009, however, will make this wave count invalid, as the break could lead to a gain into $2,030-$2,049 range.

A break below $1,988 could be followed by a drop to $1,969. The bias could be towards the downside, as the a five-wave cycle from $1,804.20 has peaked at $2,048.71.

Spot gold may fall into $1,987-$1,994 range

A retracement analysis on the cycle suggests a target zone of $1,898 to $1,926. On the daily chart, a strong resistance stands around $2,073.

The metal has failed three times to overcome this barrier since August 2020.

A giant triple-top might be developing.

It suggests a target around $1,600. A rising trendline points at a realistic target around $1,923.