The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday raised the key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 22% after convening an emergency meeting, a development that comes two weeks after it held a regular huddle to keep the interest rate on hold.
In a press release, the central bank said that after its meeting on June 12, two important domestic developments have taken place “that have slightly deteriorated inflation outlook and which could potentially increase pressure on the already stressed external account”.
“First, there are certain upward revisions in taxes, duties and PDL rate in FY24 budget as approved by the National Assembly on June 25.”
Second, the SBP, on June 23, withdrew its general guidance for commercial banks on prioritization of imports, it said.
“While the MPC views these measures as necessary in the context of completion of the ongoing IMF programme, they have increased the upside risks to the inflation outlook,” the SBP said.
“The Committee views that additional tax measures are likely to contribute to inflation both directly and indirectly, while the relaxation in imports may exert pressures in the foreign exchange market,” it said. “The latter may result in higher-than-earlier anticipated exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices.”
With this background, the MPC convened an emergency meeting to respond to these developments.
“The MPC decided to raise the policy rate by 100 bps to 22 percent, effective June 27, 2023,” it added.
“The MPC views this action as necessary to keep real interest rate firmly in the positive territory on a forward-looking basis.”
This would help further anchor inflation expectations – which are already moderating over the last few months, and support bringing down inflation towards the medium term target of 5 – 7 percent by the end of FY25, barring any unforeseen developments, read the statement.
“The MPC views that today’s decision - along with the expected completion of the ongoing IMF program and the government adhering to the target of generating a primary surplus in FY24 would help in addressing external sector vulnerabilities and reduce economic uncertainty.”