Falling oil prices and a gloomy outlook for the global economy will put Nigeria's naira under pressure in the coming months, while sinking interest rates will knock Kenya's shilling, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
The naira, the currency of Africa's second-biggest economy, has been resilient since the start of the year, supported by higher oil prices and a healthy balance of its foreign exchange reserves.
Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves had risen above a 29-month high of $41.12 billion by September 26, driven mainly by strong oil prices and higher production in Africa's top energy producer.
Analysts see the naira trading at 159 against the dollar by the end of December and 161 by the end of June next year, shedding more than 2 percent from current levels.
The naira has gained about 3 percent since the start of the year, even though it got hit in May due to a dip in the price of oil, Nigeria's main export. It has subsequently recovered and is now trading around 157 per dollar. "Events in May and June highlight the bottom line with the naira," said David Cowan, Africa economist at Citi. A monthly Reuters oil poll showed that slowing global economic growth and receding worries over a loss of Middle East supply are likely to lead to lower oil prices for the rest of this year and in 2013.