ISLAMABAD: With lowest level of exports of 10.5 per cent of GDP, Pakistan is the most vulnerable to balance of payment (BOP) crises among the South Asian sovereigns, says Moody’s Investors Services (Moody’s).

The rating agency in its latest report, ‘Sovereigns – South Asia, Low trade openness fuels vulnerability to shocks and curbs growth in the longer run’, stated that Pakistan and Sri Lanka are most vulnerable among the four sovereigns.

Both have experienced significant BOP pressures because of very low exports and FDI, combined with much weaker policy management and higher political risk. India is the least vulnerable because of its larger and more diversified export sector, as well as better macroeconomic policy management which has allowed it to accumulate and maintain adequate foreign exchange reserves.

Their low trade openness and weakly diversified export baskets, combined with weak macroeconomic policy management and higher political risks, have contributed in low foreign exchange reserves to buffer against shocks. India is least vulnerable, reflecting its larger and more diversified export sector, as well as better macroeconomic policy management which supports it having adequate foreign exchange reserves.

Pakistan and Sri Lanka have much weaker infrastructure compared with India, contributing to high costs to trade.

Moody’s downgrades Pakistan’s rating to Caa3, changes outlook to stable

Within South Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh have the lowest level of exports at 10.5 per cent and 12.9 per cent of GDP, respectively.

Sri Lanka and India, which have more developed services export sectors, have exports of 21.5 per cent and 22.4 per cent of GDP, respectively.

By country, Pakistan’s export potential is about six times its current exports, while Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka have export potential of about two to three times current export.

These factors, combined with very weak fiscal policy effectiveness in both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, drive their bigger macroeconomic imbalances that exacerbate their inability to adjust to external shocks. Both countries run persistent current account deficits, driven by low saving rates amid persistently large government fiscal deficits.

Domestic political risks are also very high, which disrupt policymaking and weigh on their ability to attract foreign direct investments (FDI) to build and maintain adequate reserves. Low FDI, in turn, contributes to their limited participation in global value chains. Pakistan and Sri Lanka have net inflows of FDI amounting to an average of 0.6 per cent and 1.0 per cent of GDP from 2013-22.

In 2022-23, Pakistan’s and Sri Lanka’s credit profiles deteriorated significantly. A global commodity price shock coincided with expansionary fiscal policies which led to strong import demand. At the same time, global financial conditions tightened. The combination of these factors drove a rapid widening of their current account deficits and large drawdowns of their foreign exchange reserves.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a cycle low of $2.6 billion at the end of May 2023, sufficient to cover less than one month of imports, although reserves have since picked up to $7.5 billion as of October 2023.

Sri Lanka reserves dropped to $1.9 billion in December 2022 from $2.7 billion a year earlier. Bangladesh’s credit profile also weakened, although by a smaller extent, as it had more reserves compared with Pakistan and Sri Lanka to absorb the global energy price shock that hit in early 2022.

World Bank research found that Pakistan’s cascading tariffs are among the steepest in the world, which incentivizes export substitution. South Asian sovereigns also have high prevalence of non-tariff trade barriers, such as labeling requirements and administrative fees, which further encourages export substitution.

In comparison, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are further back in many areas, including political stability, governance, trade infrastructure and policies, and labor quality. Their much weaker attributes will impede their ability to credibly develop and diversify the export sectors.

In addition, all three countries face macroeconomic imbalances to varying degrees, which would further constrain capacity to invest in infrastructure and education needed to support the development of the external sector.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023