PARIS: Torrential rain is expected to cut wheat planting in France, Germany and Britain in an early setback for next year’s European harvest, though conditions are more promising in other countries.

Strategie Grains analysts on Thursday forecast a 1% fall in European Union soft wheat production next year as it projected the crop area to drop by over 2%.

In France, the EU’s biggest grain producer, the farm ministry this month projected a 5% decline in the soft wheat area, while some observers including Argus Media anticipate a double-digit drop. With late sowing still in progress and the state of young plants mixed, the picture may not become clear until spring, French traders and producers said.

“People are talking about a 5%, 10% sowing decrease but it won’t be possible to narrow this range until after winter,” said Celine Imart, a farmer in southwest France and spokesperson for grain industry association Intercereales.

“There’s uncertainty about how crops emerged after sowing.” Initial concerns about waterlogged fields in the west and north are being tempered by promising conditions in major belts like the Beauce plain south of Paris, where planting advanced more quickly and frequent showers have replenished soil moisture.

In Germany, the winter wheat sown area for the 2024 harvest is expected to fall 7.3% from the year before, the national statistics agency estimated on Friday, citing soggy field conditions as well as the impact of EU subsidy changes.

“The reduction in wheat did surprise as there had been general belief that Germany had not suffered much sowing disruption from the rain, as seen in France,” a German trader said.

“We are still getting lots of rain so plants are looking pretty wet but generally okay.”

In Britain, a survey issued by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) this week projected a 3% decline in the wheat area to the lowest since 2020. “Given the challenges faced this autumn and the condition of soils, winter crop areas may well be lower than this survey indicates,” the AHDB said.

Wheat prospects were more favourable elsewhere in Europe. In Poland, winter wheat acreage is estimated at 2.3 million hectares, little changed on the 2023 harvest, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.

“Winter crops generally look good, and their condition does not raise any major concerns at the moment,” Sabaranski said. Rain and mild temperatures have helped crops in parts of central and eastern Europe after parched conditions earlier in autumn, particularly Romania and Bulgaria, the EU’s crop monitoring service said this week.